Canada Chart Pack Oil sector strength mitigating weakness elsewhere The pandemic has thrown up many surprises for the Canadian economy, the latest of which is the speed at which oil production has rebounded. Even though global fuel demand remains weak amid ongoing... 23rd February 2021 · 9 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Immigration target unlikely to be met this year The government signalled its commitment to its new immigration target this week, but disruption from the pandemic will probably prevent immigration from picking up meaningfully until at least the end... 19th February 2021 · 4 mins read
Canada Data Response Retail Sales (Dec.) Lower-than-usual holiday spending caused retail sales to fall by more than 3% m/m in December and, amid the latest lockdowns, the preliminary estimate shows sales fell by almost as much again in... 19th February 2021 · 2 mins read
Canada Data Response Teranet House Prices (Jan.) The further slowdown in the monthly pace of gains in January suggests house price inflation will soon peak at a little more than 10%. 18th February 2021 · 2 mins read
Canada Economics Update Housing market to lose momentum as bond yields rise Record low inventory should continue to drive strong house price gains in the first half of the year, but we expect house price inflation to slow beyond then as bond yields and mortgage rates start to... 17th February 2021 · 2 mins read
Canada Data Response Consumer Prices (Jan.) Inflation rebounded to 1.0% in January and is set to rise to 3% or higher in April. That spike will mainly reflect base effects linked to the sharp falls in energy prices early last year but, as the... 17th February 2021 · 2 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Housing market shrugged off lockdowns in January The housing market has largely shrugged off the latest phase of the coronavirus restrictions. If anything, the data imply there are upside risks to our already above-consensus forecasts for house... 12th February 2021 · 6 mins read
Canada Economics Update Easing of restrictions to gradually lift employment The easing of the coronavirus restrictions will support a rebound in employment, but the recovery is likely to be slow going for the next few months due to limited progress with vaccinations. 10th February 2021 · 2 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Economy should avoid first-quarter contraction The unexpected rise in hours worked in January, and the jump in oil exports to the US, support our view that GDP should continue to expand this quarter, albeit at a much slower pace. 5th February 2021 · 3 mins read
Canada Data Response Labour Force Survey (Jan.) & International Trade (Dec.) While the slump in employment in January suggests GDP growth will slow sharply this quarter, the unexpected rise in hours worked supports our view that GDP will at least continue to increase, and the... 5th February 2021 · 3 mins read
Canada Economics Update Natural resources sector to offset weakness elsewhere The natural resources sector looks set to recover sooner than we previously thought, which should help to prevent GDP from falling in the first quarter despite the coronavirus restrictions and vaccine... 3rd February 2021 · 3 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Reliance on the kindness of strangers raises problems The government found itself battling on two fronts this week, as the EU moved to restrict vaccine exports and US President Joe Biden sought to strengthen ‘Buy American’ provisions at the expense of... 29th January 2021 · 6 mins read
Canada Data Response GDP by Industry (Nov.) A strong rise in GDP in November and an unexpected gain in December suggest that the economy carried far more momentum into the new year than expected. Nevertheless, as a result of the latest... 29th January 2021 · 2 mins read
Canada Economics Update Bank unlikely to pull forward rate hike plans The Bank of Canada has signalled that it will wait until 2023 to raise interest rates and, despite our stronger forecasts for GDP growth, there are a few reasons why we expect it to stick to this... 28th January 2021 · 3 mins read
Canada Chart Pack Vaccinations lag the US Canada will receive only enough doses of the Pfizer and Moderna vaccines to provide the equivalent of one dose to 16% of the population by the end of the first quarter. By contrast, even in the... 26th January 2021 · 9 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Keystone XL cancellation highlights climate challenges The executive order signed by US President Joe Biden this week, to revoke the permit allowing the Keystone XL pipeline to cross the US border, means the project is as good as dead. This does not alter... 22nd January 2021 · 5 mins read
