Canada Data Response Retail Sales (Nov.) The tightening of the coronavirus restrictions in November helped boost retail sales, as consumers substituted spending on goods for spending on services. That means the retail sales data paint too... 22nd January 2021 · 2 mins read
Canada Economics Update Bank hints at QE taper this year The main change to the Bank of Canada’s policy statement today was a signal that the pace of its bond purchases will be reduced as the Governing Council gains confidence in the strength of the... 20th January 2021 · 3 mins read
Canada Data Response Consumer Prices (Dec.) The unexpected fall in CPI inflation to 0.7% in December is not a sign of things to come. Instead, base effects linked to the steep falls in prices in the spring last year will push up inflation to 3%... 20th January 2021 · 2 mins read
Canada Data Response Manufacturing Sales (Nov.) Manufacturing sales dropped back again in November and renewed supply-chain disruptions suggest that the sector will continue to struggle in the coming months. 19th January 2021 · 2 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Vaccine availability to remain limited in first quarter The government confirmed this week that vaccine availability will remain limited in the first quarter, so there is little chance of the economic recovery beginning any sooner than we currently... 15th January 2021 · 7 mins read
Canada Economic Outlook Vaccines to drive strong recovery this year and next Despite a rockier start to 2021 than we previously anticipated, we continue to expect the economy to recover strongly from the second quarter onwards, as the vaccine rollout allows restrictions to be... 14th January 2021 · 20 mins read
Bank of Canada Watch Bank to remain on hold as it upgrades its forecasts The Bank of Canada is set to upgrade its growth forecasts next week, despite the deterioration of the near-term outlook, so speculation that it might cut interest rates looks overdone. 13th January 2021 · 7 mins read
Canada Data Response Business & Consumer Outlook Surveys (Q4) The fourth-quarter Business Outlook Survey (BOS) showed that firms’ hiring and investment intentions are now back to pre-pandemic norms, which bodes well for the economic recovery this year. 11th January 2021 · 2 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly A slow start in the race to vaccinate Ontario and Quebec extended their coronavirus restrictions this week and, given that infections are still rising and logistical problems are holding up the vaccination process, it seems likely that... 8th January 2021 · 4 mins read
Canada Data Response Labour Force Survey (Dec.) The drop in employment in December would have been even larger were it not for the early timing of the survey reference week. With further restrictions imposed across the country since December’s... 8th January 2021 · 2 mins read
Canada Data Response International Trade (Nov.) Exports rose in November and the recent improvement in the business surveys bodes well for growth in the coming months, but the lockdowns suggest that GDP will still edge down in the first quarter. 7th January 2021 · 2 mins read
Canada Economics Update House prices to rise further in 2021 The wide range of forecasts for house prices in 2021 shows that there is still a lot of uncertainty ahead. Nevertheless, given strong demand and low mortgage rates, our view is that prices will... 6th January 2021 · 3 mins read
Canada Data Response GDP by Industry (Oct.) The economy continued to recover at a decent pace in October and November despite the various restrictions imposed on high-risk services, but the broader lockdowns coming into effect in Ontario and... 23rd December 2020 · 2 mins read
Canada Chart Pack Fresh lockdowns present new downside risks The province-wide shutdowns recently announced in Ontario and Quebec raise the downside risks to our near-term forecasts, although the start of the coronavirus vaccination program last week provides a... 22nd December 2020 · 8 mins read
Canada Economics Update Ten potential surprises for Canada in 2021 It is not just a strong recovery that could surprise some market participants in 2021; a change to the Bank of Canada’s mandate, a snap election, and several other events could also alter the economic... 21st December 2020 · 4 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly More COVID restrictions coming The provincial government in Quebec this week announced an 18-day “circuit breaker” lockdown, and the authorities in Ontario seem to be planning something similar. We assumed further measures were... 18th December 2020 · 5 mins read
