Canada Economics Teranet House Prices (Jun.) House price inflation accelerated to 16% y/y in June but, with the sales-to-new listing ratio falling in recent months, price inflation will peak in the second half of the year. 20th July 2021 · 2 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Bank’s new GDP forecasts too optimistic The Bank of Canada expects GDP to move above its pre-pandemic trend in 2023 but, given the potential for oil prices and residential investment to decline, we think its forecasts will prove too... 16th July 2021 · 5 mins read
Canada Economic Outlook Consumption to drive recovery The lifting of restrictions and ongoing policy support should translate into a sustained period of above-potential GDP growth, driven by consumption and business investment. We expect GDP growth of 6... 15th July 2021 · 19 mins read
Canada Economics Bank tapers its asset purchases again The Bank of Canada’s decision to continue tapering its asset purchases today came as little surprise and we continue to expect the Bank to bring the QE program to a close by the end of this year. With... 14th July 2021 · 3 mins read
Canada Economics Manufacturing Sales (May) Manufacturing sales fell again in May as the global supply shortages continued to take their toll. While those shortages should ease in the second half of the year, the rebound in production is set to... 14th July 2021 · 2 mins read
Canada Economics Home sales fall further in June The local real estate board data suggest that home sales fell further in June but, with new listings declining as well, house prices look set to keep rising. 9th July 2021 · 4 mins read
Canada Data Response Labour Force Survey (Jun.) The stronger-than-expected rise in employment in June confirms that labour shortages are not holding back the recovery, but the weakness in hours worked still suggests there are downside risks to our... 9th July 2021 · 2 mins read
Bank of Canada Watch Bank to taper asset purchases As it is widely anticipated that the Bank of Canada will taper its asset purchases next week, the more significant development may be the introduction of a new range of indicators that the Bank will... 7th July 2021 · 8 mins read
Canada Economics Focus Residential investment now the key downside risk The sheer scale of the surge in residential investment since the pandemic means it now presents a key downside risk to the outlook. At best, the widely held assumption that residential investment will... 6th July 2021 · 14 mins read
Canada Data Response Business Outlook & Consumer Expect. Surveys (Q2) The Bank of Canada’s latest surveys show more evidence of inflationary pressures building but, given firms and consumers expect higher inflation to be temporary, the Bank is unlikely to be too... 5th July 2021 · 2 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly GDP to surpass pre-pandemic level in July The upward revision in March and smaller-than-expected fall in April mean that GDP is now on track to surpass its pre-pandemic level in July, a couple of months earlier than we previously thought... 2nd July 2021 · 5 mins read
Canada Data Response International Trade (May) Exports were weaker than expected in May, but that was largely due to the ongoing global semiconductor shortage rather than weakening external demand. And with the rise in imports boding well for... 2nd July 2021 · 2 mins read
Canada Economics Labour shortages set to intensify Canadian firms are not currently suffering from labour shortages to the same extent as those in the US but, with immigration still muted, the issue is likely to get worse as the economy continues to... 30th June 2021 · 2 mins read
Canada Data Response GDP by Industry (Apr.) The 0.3% m/m decline in GDP in April was smaller than Stats Can initially suggested and implies that, despite the third coronavirus wave, the economy held up relatively well. We now expect second... 30th June 2021 · 2 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Oil price rally more important than slump in lumber The dramatic fall in lumber prices over the past month has captured a lot of attention, but it is the more gradual rally in oil prices that is likely to have the greatest bearing on the economic... 25th June 2021 · 6 mins read
Canada Chart Pack Price and wage expectations continue to rise The latest CFIB Business Barometer shows that, as the re-opening process got underway, firms’ selling price expectations surged in June. Firms now expect to raise their prices by an average of 4.7%... 25th June 2021 · 9 mins read
