Canada Chart Pack Employment to decline in December The decline in restaurant visits in the past month suggests that over 100,000 jobs in the accommodation and food services sector were at risk even before most of the Greater Toronto Area moved into... 24th November 2020 · 9 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Housing market shrugs off worsening outbreaks Home sales remained high in October while house price inflation accelerated. While renewed lockdowns could soon dent home sales, we doubt they would lower prices. 20th November 2020 · 4 mins read
Canada Data Response Retail Sales (Sep.) The 1.1% m/m rise in retail sales in September was much better than expected, but sales appear to have stagnated in October and the prospect of restrictions being imposed on all non-essential... 20th November 2020 · 2 mins read
Canada Economics Update “Circuit breaker” lockdowns the key risk to activity The high-frequency data suggest the targeted restrictions imposed last month have not weighed much on broader activity, but worsening COVID-19 outbreaks raise the risk that “circuit breaker” lockdowns... 19th November 2020 · 4 mins read
Canada Data Response Consumer Prices (Oct.) The unexpected rise in inflation to 0.7% in October, from 0.5%, was mainly due to higher food prices. While renewed restrictions related to COVID-19 could cause prices for some items to increase in... 18th November 2020 · 2 mins read
Canada Data Response Manufacturing Sales (Sep.) The 1.5% m/m rise in manufacturing sales in September reversed the 1.4% fall in August, but still left sales down 6% y/y. While the business surveys point to another month-on-month rise in October... 16th November 2020 · 2 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Light at the end of a darkening tunnel The increased likelihood that an effective vaccine will be rolled out next year could eventually lead to a situation in which Canada’s economy outperforms, but the swift U-turn this week on the easing... 13th November 2020 · 7 mins read
Canada Economics Update Vaccine could reduce size of further fiscal support The rollout of an effective vaccine in early 2021 would cause us to pull up our growth forecasts for next year, but the boost to GDP in 2022 could be much smaller if the improved near-term outlook... 10th November 2020 · 4 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Ontario eases restrictions and provides more stimulus The easing of restrictions in Ontario and the stimulus announced in the province’s delayed 2020 budget bode well for activity, but the recovery could yet be upended by the further spread of the... 6th November 2020 · 4 mins read
Canada Data Response Labour Force Survey (Oct.) Employment growth slowed sharply in October, but the 84,000 gain was still impressive given that the renewed coronavirus-related restrictions caused employment to fall in some sectors. Moreover, the... 6th November 2020 · 3 mins read
Canada Economics Update Easing of restrictions may not last The imminent easing of restrictions in Ontario is another reason to think that GDP will keep rising in the fourth quarter, but there is clearly a significant chance that restrictions will be reimposed... 5th November 2020 · 3 mins read
Canada Data Response International Trade (Sep.) Exports and imports both rose at a similar pace in September and we expect them to continue to edge up over the rest of the year, despite the recent reimposition of domestic restrictions and in key... 4th November 2020 · 2 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Onus remains on fiscal policy Developments this week suggest it will take a much greater deterioration of the outlook for the Bank of Canada to deliver additional monetary support, leaving the onus on Finance Minister Chrystia... 30th October 2020 · 6 mins read
Canada Data Response GDP by Industry (Aug.) The 1.2% m/m rise in GDP in August and the preliminary estimate of a 0.7% gain in September confirm that the initial recovery has been stronger than first anticipated. The latest restrictions will... 30th October 2020 · 2 mins read
Canada Economics Update Bank alters QE and beefs up forward guidance While the Bank of Canada today trimmed the pace of its QE purchases, we agree with its claim that the program should be as stimulative as before providing those purchases are focused on longer-term... 28th October 2020 · 3 mins read
Canada Economics Update US election effects to be outweighed by other factors A Democratic clean sweep in the US election is probably the scenario that would be most beneficial for Canada’s GDP, but the effects would still be far outweighed by other factors. 27th October 2020 · 4 mins read
