Global Economics Focus How will policymakers fight the next downturn? Concerns that policymakers in developed countries do not have the tools to fight the next downturn are generally misplaced. There is plenty more they could do. The constraints will instead be... 15th February 2019 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Another vote on the PM’s Brexit strategy The real Brexit showdown was always expected to take place on 27th February, but if anything this afternoon’s votes in Parliament will add to the current downward pressure on the pound as they have... 14th February 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor (Jan. 2019) Our Tracker suggests that the improvement in sentiment towards EMs at the start of this year was accompanied by a pick-up in capital flows in January. It looks like this was concentrated in flows to... 14th February 2019 · 1 min read
Capital Daily Loose monetary policy unlikely to prop up the stock market 14th February 2019 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Euro-zone/US divergence to narrow as US slows The recent contrast between a weakening euro-zone and resilient US seems to reflect the former’s higher exposure to world trade and the relative weakness of real disposable incomes growth there. We... 14th February 2019 · 1 min read
Metals Focus Can copper return to $10,000? Constrained supply growth and surging demand from electric vehicles mean that we think that the price of copper will rise by over 60%, to nearly $10,000 per tonne, by 2025. This is likely to represent... 14th February 2019 · 1 min read
US Data Response Retail Sales (Dec.) & Producer Prices (Jan.) The unexpected plunge in control group retail sales in December means that fourth-quarter GDP growth was probably nearer 2.5% annualised than the 3.1% we had pencilled in and, more worryingly, it also... 14th February 2019 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Manufacturing Sales (Dec.) The unexpected slump in manufacturing sales in December was principally due to continued problems in petroleum refining, but the weakness extended well beyond that sector and suggests that Canada did... 14th February 2019 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Focus Assessing regional “bellwethers” In this Focus, we assess how effective various indicators are for tracking economic growth in the region. The trade volume figures and our proprietary GDP Trackers provide the best guide to the state... 14th February 2019 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update Smaller tax refunds a headwind for house prices Tax returns processed so far indicate households are set for smaller refunds this year. For most, the drop in expected income will not be enough to derail plans to buy a home. But, to the extent... 14th February 2019 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Saudi oil output cuts and expat fees, Egypt inflation Comments from Saudi Arabia’s Oil Minister that oil production will be reduced to well below its OPEC quota suggests that the authorities are focused on driving oil prices higher in order to prevent a... 14th February 2019 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Leading indicators not (yet) pointing to recession Recent movements in most of the indicators which signalled the only two recessions in the euro-zone’s history suggest that the economic outlook has deteriorated sharply. They do not yet point... 14th February 2019 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Update Should we be worried about property fund outflows? The large outflow from open-ended property funds in December was disconcerting. But, barring a no-deal Brexit, it is unlikely to herald a return of the problems seen after the EU Referendum. 14th February 2019 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Aluminium exports hit a record China’s major commodity exports rose in January, probably due to a combination of an earlier Chinese New Year holiday and sluggish domestic demand. Imports also painted a surprisingly resilient... 14th February 2019 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone GDP (Q4) With Germany avoiding recession only by the skin of its teeth, and Italy actually in recession, the euro-zone eked out GDP growth of only 0.2% in Q4. For now we still expect growth to recover a bit... 14th February 2019 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: Activity data suggest soft end to 2018 December’s activity data supported our view that growth probably stabilised at about 1% q/q saar in Q4. Despite growing worries about power cuts, we expect that growth will pick up in 2019. 14th February 2019 · 1 min read
