Emerging Europe Data Response Central & Eastern Europe GDP (Q4 2018) GDP data for Central and Eastern Europe showed that growth in the region held up pretty well at the end of last year – especially considering the ongoing weakness in Germany. Even so, growth still... 14th February 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey Industrial Production & Current Account (Dec.) The bigger-than-expected fall in Turkish industrial production in December adds to the evidence that the economy performed terribly in the final quarter of last year. We think that GDP may have... 14th February 2019 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Data Response RICS Residential Market Survey (Jan.) Housing demand fell sharply in January, but we doubt that heralds a collapse in prices. But conversely, even if a Brexit deal is done, the market is unlikely to rebound. In all, we expect the housing... 14th February 2019 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update EM slowdown to be broad-based The slowdown in growth in the emerging world this year is likely to be unusually broad-based. That will set a downbeat mood for EM assets over the course of this year. 13th February 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EMs facing synchronised downturn The slowdown in growth in the emerging world this year is likely to be unusually broad-based. That will set a downbeat mood for EM assets over the course of this year. 13th February 2019 · 1 min read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report US crude stocks recorded a hefty build, primarily reflecting a decline in refinery inputs as net imports plunged and production remained unchanged. 13th February 2019 · 1 min read
Capital Daily NZD likely to appreciate further against AUD, but not USD 13th February 2019 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update ECB and SNB unlikely to put a floor under bond yields We doubt that German and Swiss government bond yields will drop much further. But if they do fall deep into negative territory, there probably won’t be much that the ECB or the SNB will be willing or... 13th February 2019 · 1 min read
US Data Response Consumer Prices (Jan.) The decline in headline CPI inflation to a 19-month low of 1.6% in January, from 1.9%, was due principally to a sharp decline in energy prices. Excluding food and energy, core CPI inflation remained... 13th February 2019 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Teranet House Prices (Jan.) The 0.1% monthly decline in the Teranet House Price Index in January equates to a decent 0.4% m/m increase in seasonally-adjusted terms. But the annual pace of house price inflation dropped back to... 13th February 2019 · 1 min read
EM Valuations Monitor Lower valuations are little cause for optimism Most EM assets have yet to recover from their sharp falls in 2018, meaning that in many cases their valuations are still much lower than they were a year or so ago. But we wouldn’t interpret that as a... 13th February 2019 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Cracks appearing in the foundations of labour market Until recently the labour market had seemed to be immune to the Brexit uncertainty which has hampered other sectors of the economy, but there are signs that Brexit is now starting to affect the labour... 13th February 2019 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: The economic costs of load shedding South Africa’s rolling blackouts anger many, but seem to cause little economic damage. The big risk is that the government will prolong the crisis by propping up Eskom, rather than seriously reforming... 13th February 2019 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Consumer Prices & Producer Prices (Jan.) The fall in CPI inflation in January to below the Bank of England’s 2% target for the first time in two years provided a further boost to households’ real spending power, but we doubt inflation will... 13th February 2019 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Industrial Production (Dec.) December’s 0.9% fall in industrial production confirms that there was a broad-based slowdown in the euro-zone at the end of last year, which was not due to problems in just one or two sectors or... 13th February 2019 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Chance of Riksbank rate hikes falling The Riksbank seems to be in denial about the weakening of Sweden’s economy. While it reiterated today that it expects to raise interest rates in the second half of this year, with the economy... 13th February 2019 · 1 min read
