Precious Metals Update Gold: short-term pain, long-term gain Despite mounting trade tensions, the price of gold has slumped in recent weeks prompting some commentators to question its safe-haven appeal. While we expect gold to remain under pressure in the short... 6th July 2018 · 1 min read
US Data Response Employment Report (Jun.) The 213,000 gain in non-farm payrolls in June, which followed an even stronger 244,000 rise in May, provides further evidence that uncertainty over trade policy isn’t yet having a major impact on the... 6th July 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly German industry rebounds, but are politics a threat? Immigration has remained very high up the political agenda this week, and while EU leaders reached a compromise on Monday, this is not a closed issue and tensions may well flare up again. Meanwhile... 6th July 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia CPI (Jun.) The modest decline in Russian inflation in June, to 2.3% y/y, was mainly a result of a sharp fall in fruit and vegetable inflation. And while headline inflation is still weak, there were some... 6th July 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Brazil Consumer Prices (Jun.) The jump in Brazilian inflation last month, to 4.4% y/y, from 2.9% y/y in May appears to be a result entirely of the truck drivers’ strike and electricity price hikes, and there are already signs that... 6th July 2018 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Chart Pack July 2018 Data revisions left Q1 GDP at 0.2% q/q, an improvement over the previous estimate but still weak. However the PMI data showed further improvement in June. As a result, economic growth is likely to... 6th July 2018 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Q2 rebound, edging closer to a rate hike, a soft Brexit? An encouraging set of Markit/CIPS surveys provided further evidence that the economy has rebounded in Q2. Meanwhile, in a speech this week, Bank of England Governor, Mark Carney, appeared to reinforce... 6th July 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly EC to punish Poland, Turkish inflation surges The infringement procedure launched this week by the European Commission against Poland – in response to controversial legal reforms and the associated worries about the erosion of judicial... 6th July 2018 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Harada’s battlefields, firms optimistic on investment BoJ Board member Harada this week refuted criticism that the Bank’s prolonged monetary easing poses a major threat to financial stability. We share his view that those concerns are overdone, which is... 6th July 2018 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Data Response Halifax House Prices (Jun.) Annual house price growth cooled in June, driven by a gentle decline in prices over the last few months. With buyer interest in decline and further interest rate hikes ahead, we think house price... 6th July 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Weekly Kenya rebounds as growth elsewhere slumps Recently-released figures have supported our view that Kenya’s economy will strengthen this year. Conditions elsewhere, however, seem to have deteriorated. And we think that next week’s data will... 6th July 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Malaysia: China investment freeze to weigh on growth The Malaysian government’s decision earlier this week to suspend work on the US$20bn East Coast Railway Link points to a bleak future for Chinese investment in the country. Halting work on these... 6th July 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German Industrial Production (May) May’s industrial data add to the evidence that the weakness in the sector earlier in the year was at least partly down to temporary factors. Overall, the German economy has clearly shifted down a gear... 6th July 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Policymakers, housing and households As well as fretting about the rise in global trade barriers, policymakers in Australia are also becoming more worried about housing. And rightly so. After all, some of the most reliable leading... 6th July 2018 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Labour Cash Earnings & Household Spending (May) The acceleration in base pay in May is another sign that the tight labour market is boosting cost pressures. But we think that wages would still have to rise much faster to generate 2% inflation. 6th July 2018 · 1 min read
US Economics Update How big of a deal would auto tariffs be? Applying tariffs on auto imports would represent the biggest escalation of protectionism so far. Even though the direct impact would be small, boosting the price level by 1% point or so and triggering... 5th July 2018 · 1 min read
