China Economics Weekly More easing coming, China still in US crosshairs Policy easing efforts were expanded this week. Fiscal loosening was given the green light. The People’s Bank adopted a more proactive approach to ensuring that its liquidity injections translate into... 27th July 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Putin wavers on pension reform, Turkish sanctions Signs this week that Russian President Vladimir Putin now opposes a planned rise in the retirement age suggest that the one significant policy reform announced in the country in the past three years... 27th July 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack Conditions faltering The latest activity figures suggest that EM growth faltered a bit in the middle of Q2. Consumer spending slowed in April and May, while EM industry seems to have started to lose momentum. Forward... 27th July 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response French GDP (Q2, 1st estimate) The 0.2% expansion in France’s GDP in Q2 was disappointing. But since temporary factors weighed on growth, we still think that euro-zone growth picked up in Q2. 27th July 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Weekly Inflation in Nigeria, violence in Mozambique The available evidence suggests that fears of a pre-election surge in Nigerian inflation are misplaced. Elsewhere, we doubt that violence will derail gas investment in Mozambique and expect that... 27th July 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Chart Pack Inflation rises across region, policy response to vary The latest figures show that inflation rose across Latin America in June and early July, but the reaction from the region’s central banks is likely to differ. Policymakers in Mexico will focus more on... 26th July 2018 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Trade war cancelled…maybe The unexpectedly successful trade meeting between President Donald Trump and EU President Jean-Claude Juncker yesterday has raised hopes that a much bigger trade war can be averted. Admittedly, the... 26th July 2018 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Homeownership & Vacancy Rates (Q2) The US homeownership rate was essentially unchanged in Q2 for the second consecutive quarter, confirming that the nascent recovery in the share of homeownership, which began in 2016, has stalled... 26th July 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update ECB patient about rate hikes despite positive outlook The ECB made no changes to its policy or forward guidance today and strongly endorsed financial markets’ expectations for interest rates to remain on hold until autumn next year. It also made clear... 26th July 2018 · 1 min read
US Employment Report Preview Strong payrolls will keep the Fed hiking We anticipate a 220,000 gain in non-farm payroll employment in July, with the unemployment rate falling back below 4% and average hourly earnings posting a 0.3% m/m increase. Despite objections from... 26th July 2018 · 1 min read
BoE Watch MPC to press ahead with second rate rise in a decade While a vote to raise interest rates on 2nd August is unlikely to be unanimous, we think that the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) will press ahead with the second interest rate rise since July 2007. 26th July 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economic Outlook Regional growth set to slow further We expect GDP growth across Emerging Europe to slow by more than most expect over 2019-20 and monetary policy is set to be tightened further than is priced into markets. The important exception to... 26th July 2018 · 1 min read
US Data Response Durable Goods (Jun.) The 1.0% m/m rise in headline durable goods orders in June was partly driven by the volatile transport category. But underlying orders also picked up, suggesting that the apparent slowdown in second... 26th July 2018 · 1 min read
Metals Data Response Global Steel Production (Jun.) World Steel Association (WSA) data showed a 5.8% y/y increase in global steel production in June, driven by higher output in China, India and Japan. We expect this trend to continue over the coming... 26th July 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Markets weather US-Iran tensions, Egypt seeks oil hedge Financial markets across the MENA region have shrugged off the latest escalation of tensions between the US and Iran, although we doubt that this resilience will last. Meanwhile, news that Egypt will... 26th July 2018 · 1 min read
