Nordic & Swiss Data Response Swedish GDP (Q2) & Swiss KOF (Jul.) The Swedish economy grew very strongly in the first half of the year and is likely to continue performing well. This is set to drive wage growth gradually higher, prompting the Riksbank to raise... 30th July 2018 · 1 min read
Global Central Bank Watch The UK (not Japan) likely to tighten policy in August In our view, speculation that the Bank of Japan is preparing to dial back its ultra-loose monetary policy is misplaced. Meanwhile, the ECB is likely to leave its policy rates at rock-bottom levels... 27th July 2018 · 1 min read
Commodities Weekly Reprieve for commodities may prove short-lived Commodity prices rebounded a little this week as the EU and US agreed to hold off on any additional tariffs while trade negotiations are underway. However, prices may struggle to hold on to these... 27th July 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Weekly Nafta talks restart, dire data from Argentina The relatively modest rise in the Mexican peso against the dollar in reaction to the positive news flow on Nafta talks suggests that investors are interpreting recent events with caution. Indeed, a... 27th July 2018 · 1 min read
Capital Daily Healthy US economy should support the dollar until next year 27th July 2018 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Resumption of NAFTA talks the easy part The more conciliatory tone adopted by Washington in trade talks this week bodes well for the future of NAFTA. But with the US administration also confirming that Canada is viewed as a national... 27th July 2018 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Temporary reprieve as EU-US trade tensions ease Given the openness of the Nordic & Swiss economies, their policymakers will have breathed a sigh of relief at the easing of trade tensions this week between the EU and the US. But should the current... 27th July 2018 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Economy riding wave of fiscal stimulus The acceleration in GDP growth, to an impressive 4.1% annualised in the second quarter, is principally due to the massive fiscal stimulus unleashed at the start of this year. Unfortunately, there is... 27th July 2018 · 1 min read
US Data Response GDP (Q2 1st Estimate) The 4.1% annualised gain in second-quarter GDP should ensure that the Fed continues to hike its policy rate once every quarter, particularly as core PCE consumer prices increased by 2.0% annualised... 27th July 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly EU and US still a long way from a trade deal The easing of trade tensions between the US and EU this week reduces the risk that the US will soon increase tariffs on EU cars, but it still leaves us a long way from any action to reduce trade... 27th July 2018 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly A good start to Q3, chance of Brexit “no deal” falls The first activity surveys for July should provide a final bit of encouragement to the MPC to raise interest rates at its meeting next Thursday. Elsewhere, the EU’s Chief Negotiator, Michel Barnier... 27th July 2018 · 1 min read
Precious Metals Update What is behind rhodium's outperformance? The price of rhodium has so far been insulated from deteriorating investor sentiment towards platinum group metals (PGMs) more generally. While rhodium is still likely to outperform its sister metals... 27th July 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Equities jump, exports resilient, BoK points to rate hike Asian equities have rebounded over the past week, helped in part by easing fears of a global trade war after the successful trade meeting between US President Donald Trump and EU President Jean-Claude... 27th July 2018 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly High expectations for BoJ, doors open for immigration Bond market participants appear convinced that something substantive will come from next week’s Bank of Japan meeting. But if the Bank did anything that was perceived as backing away from the... 27th July 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia’s central bank leaves door open to easing The Russian central bank’s post-meeting statement once again sounded hawkish on inflation risks. But it also implied that interest rates could be lowered in 2019, supporting our view that the easing... 27th July 2018 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Update Landlord sell-off driving fall in instructions The end of the BTL boom has contributed to reduced liquidity in the rental market, making it harder for tenants to find a home. With no sign of a BTL revival in sight, we suspect the current slowdown... 27th July 2018 · 1 min read
