Japan Economics Update BoJ signals no change for a long time to come The Bank of Japan made some technical adjustments to its policy framework today. But its key message, which it emphasised with the introduction of explicit forward guidance, was that the main policy... 31st July 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update New Zealand - Activity proxy forewarning of 2% GDP growth Our New Zealand Activity Proxy suggests that the economy lost further momentum in June and that GDP may now be growing by just 2.0% a year. Most worrying are the signs that the slump in business... 31st July 2018 · 1 min read
China Data Response Official PMIs (Jul.) The latest survey data suggest that a weaker renminbi is helping to dampen the impact of US tariffs but that domestic headwinds continued to weigh on economic activity in July. 31st July 2018 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Labour Market & Industrial Production (Jun.) Even though job growth slowed in June, the unemployment rate remained very low. Meanwhile, industrial production rebounded last quarter which suggests that the economy returned to growth. 31st July 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Kenya’s central bank now likely to pause easing cycle The statement that accompanied today’s decision by the Central Bank of Kenya to lower interest rates by 50bp suggested that the easing cycle has further to run. However, with inflation set to rise in... 30th July 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Central banks becoming more hawkish The rise in inflation in most of Emerging Europe over the past month has caused central banks to adopt a more hawkish tone. Policymakers in Romania and the Czech Republic are likely to hike interest... 30th July 2018 · 1 min read
Commodities Outlook Trade woes to continue to weigh on prices Concerns about a possible downturn in demand are expected to remain a factor weighing on most commodity prices in the coming months. There are now clear signs that China’s economy has entered a softer... 30th July 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Activity Monitor EM growth starting to lose momentum Our GDP Tracker suggests that aggregate EM growth was stronger over Q2 as a whole than it was in Q1, but there are early signs that momentum faded towards the end of the quarter. 30th July 2018 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Mining boost to economic growth no flash in the pan Unlike the pre-tariff spike in soybean exports, the near-100% annualised surge in mining structures investment in the second quarter, which accounted for 0.4% points of the 4.1% annualised gain in... 30th July 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Underlying inflation in Brazil still soft The sharp jump in headline inflation in Brazil over the past month has masked continued weakness in core inflation. And underlying price pressures should remain fairly subdued over the next 12-18... 30th July 2018 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Household Borrowing Monitor (Jun.) June’s rise in mortgage approvals is too small to suggest that a revival in mortgage lending is underway. Meanwhile, the unsecured borrowing figures provide another reason to think that consumer... 30th July 2018 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Data Response Lending to commercial property (Jun.) Following a strong increase in May, net lending to the commercial property sector declined in June. This fall was in contrast to the sharp increase in net lending to the economy as a whole. 30th July 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response EC Business & Consumer Survey (July) July’s very small fall in the EC measure of economic sentiment supports our view that euro-zone growth is slowing only slightly from a strong pace. But producers’ price expectations remain weak and... 30th July 2018 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Data Response Mortgage Lending (Jun.) House purchase mortgage approvals rose for a second month in June – by a respectable 1.4% m/m. But demand is still weak, and further growth in lending will be constrained by high house prices and... 30th July 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Economic Sentiment Indicators (Jul.) Our weighted-average of the Economic Sentiment Indicators for Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) dipped a little this month, but it still suggests that GDP growth across the region held up well at the... 30th July 2018 · 1 min read
