Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report Inventories of crude oil jumped last week due to a rebound in net imports. Admittedly, overall production slipped back a little, but this was due to a temporary disruption. Meanwhile, gasoline demand... 1st August 2018 · 1 min read
US Data Response ISM Manufacturing Index (Jul.) With the dollar strengthening, activity surveys weakening in other countries and concerns rising over the impact of tariffs, we suspect that, following July’s fall, the ISM manufacturing index will... 1st August 2018 · 1 min read
Commodities Chart Pack Prices wobble on demand concerns Commodity prices dropped in the first half of July, despite a slight depreciation of the US dollar. Concerns about trade tensions were the main reason behind the falls. Lower trade volumes would lead... 1st August 2018 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Norwegian krone to weaken even as interest rates rise The Norges Bank will soon start to tighten monetary policy. But in contrast to the consensus view, we think that as interest rates rise over the next few years, the krone will depreciate against the... 1st August 2018 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update PMIs point to softer Q3 The fall in Markit’s global manufacturing PMI in July supports our view that Q2 marked the peak in global growth. However, the slowdown now underway should be gradual for the next year or so. 1st August 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt’s public finances on the right track Egypt’s public finances are still in a poor state but the government has made progress in cutting the budget deficit in recent years and the debt ratio is now falling. The pace of fiscal consolidation... 1st August 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Focus Assessing Asia’s vulnerability to a trade war Rising trade tensions between the US and China pose a major threat to the economic outlook for the region. The impact of the measures announced so far by President Trump should be small, and will be... 1st August 2018 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Mortgage Applications (July) Mortgage applications for both refinance and home purchase fell back in July, continuing the recent run of easing demand. The drop in mortgage interest rates seen at the beginning of the month proved... 1st August 2018 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Is the saving rate really that much higher? The upward revisions to the personal saving rate suggest that the consumption outlook could be brighter than we previously believed, but we would urge caution since those revisions are hard to square... 1st August 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update SA: Land reform: Market moves exceed economic risk President Ramaphosa’s call for constitutional change has stoked investor fears of economically-painful land reform. We think that this is overdone, but a poorly-managed process will boost market... 1st August 2018 · 1 min read
India Economics Update RBI decisive amid inflation rise The RBI opted to tighten policy again today against a backdrop of strong growth and rising inflation. The swiftness with which the central bank has responded to the jump in inflation should prevent... 1st August 2018 · 1 min read
UK Data Response UK Markit/CIPS Manufacturing PMI (Jul.) Despite the slight fall in the headline balance of the Markit/CIPS manufacturing PMI in July, the survey still points to an improvement in the sector’s fortunes. 1st August 2018 · 1 min read
Commodities Update China’s PMIs point to subdued commodities demand The latest falls in China’s PMI readings underpin our view that China’s economy is entering a softer patch, which is likely to prevent any significant rebound in commodity prices in the coming months. 1st August 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response South Africa & Nigeria Manufacturing PMI (Jul.) The pick-up in South Africa’s manufacturing PMI for July supports our view that the economy will strengthen in the second half of this year. 1st August 2018 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Data Response Nationwide House Prices (Jul.) House price inflation edged up in July. But we doubt that the market has gained a new lease of life. Indeed, with interest rates set to rise imminently, we expect house price growth to slow over the... 1st August 2018 · 1 min read
