Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Aramco IPO slipping, Egypt’s car export hopes dented Reports that Saudi Arabia’s sovereign wealth fund is looking for alternative sources of financing suggest that the government is moving further away from its flagship sale of a stake in Aramco. This... 2nd August 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Czech MPC: Another hike on the cards in November The new forecasts accompanying today’s Czech MPC meeting – at which the policy interest rate was raised by 25bp – suggest that another hike is likely in November. In 2019, we think that interest rates... 2nd August 2018 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update MPC starts gradual process of policy normalisation Despite the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC)’s hawkish forecasts accompanying the second rise in interest rates for a decade, markets are still anticipating only a very modest pace of monetary policy... 2nd August 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Brazil Industrial Production (Jun.) The 13.1% m/m jump in Brazilian industrial production in June confirmed that the sharp fall in output seen in May was a temporary result of the truck drivers’ strike in that month. But even so, it... 2nd August 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkey: assessing the fallout from US sanctions The sanctions imposed by the US on two Turkish government ministers in themselves aren’t very big, but it looks likely that more measures will be announced. The lira is likely to fall further... 2nd August 2018 · 1 min read
Global Economics Focus Why is property so often the source of trouble? It is now ten years since the property-induced global financial crisis and house prices in many countries are rising rapidly again. So now seems like a good time to assess whether property... 2nd August 2018 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Data Response CIPS/Markit Construction PMI (Jul.) Today’s CIPS/Markit Construction PMI suggests that there was further improvement in commercial construction activity in July. However, given the volatility of the series we are wary of concluding that... 2nd August 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Rotterdam offices rising up the charts A lack of available space and high rental levels in Amsterdam are boosting office demand in Rotterdam. Investment demand has already increased, but is set to stay strong in the next couple of years... 2nd August 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil’s central bank looking through inflation spike The slightly more dovish language in the Brazilian central bank’s post-meeting statement adds weight to our view that policymakers are untroubled by the recent spike in inflation. And while a... 2nd August 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Is the fiesta over for the Spanish economy? The Spanish economy recorded its smallest quarterly expansion in four years in Q2 and the business surveys weakened again in July, suggesting that the period of very strong growth is at an end. But... 2nd August 2018 · 1 min read
RBNZ Watch New Zealand - Hinting that rates may rise later While leaving interest rates at 1.75% at the policy meeting on Thursday 9 th August, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand will probably acknowledge the recent softening in activity by revising down the GDP... 2nd August 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response International Trade (Jun.) The recent fall in the Australian dollar may mean that over the next year the external sector will give the economy a bigger helping hand. But in the second quarter, it looks as though net exports... 2nd August 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Peruvian sol to outperform most EM currencies The Peruvian sol has, despite the emergence of several headwinds, held up surprisingly well over the past few months. While we expect most currencies in the emerging world to weaken over the next 12... 1st August 2018 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update PMI points to upside risks to growth and inflation Markit’s July PMI survey suggests that both GDP growth and inflation could increase to around 4% in the coming months. We doubt that either will rise that high, but the risks to the outlook seem to... 1st August 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Further signs that EMs are losing steam The fall in July’s EM manufacturing PMI adds to the evidence that economies across the emerging world are starting to lose some steam, while the breakdown of the surveys showed that price pressures... 1st August 2018 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update MPC to beef up forward guidance with neutral rate estimate The Bank of England is expected to publish an estimate of the neutral interest rate (i.e. the level at which rates have neither an expansionary nor a contractionary effect on growth and inflation) for... 1st August 2018 · 1 min read
