EM Valuations Monitor EM corporate credit spreads appear unsustainably low Aside from a brief drop in July, emerging market (EM) credit spreads have generally been rising in recent months and are well above their January troughs. Nonetheless, corporate credit spreads in... 8th August 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update A fresh look at Turkey’s banking sector risks The plunge in the lira and rise in borrowing costs is likely to push the Turkish economy into a technical recession in the second half of this year. But the vulnerabilities that have built up in the... 8th August 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Thailand holds rates, but one hike likely this year The Bank of Thailand left its policy rate at 1.50% today, but the hawkish shift in the central bank’s tone means a rate hike is now likely before the end of the year. We are revising our end-2018... 8th August 2018 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update China Industrial Metals Demand & Supply Monitor (Q2) China’s industrial activity held up well in the first half of 2018 but there are now clear signs that the economy is losing momentum, which is likely to prevent any significant gains in industrial... 8th August 2018 · 1 min read
China Data Response Trade (Jul.) Chinese export growth held steady last month with few signs of much impact from the first round of US tariffs on $34bn worth of Chinese exports, which came into force on 6th July. Import growth jumped... 8th August 2018 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Inflation Monitor (Jul.) Headline consumer price inflation is likely to have dropped in July, in large part due to a fall in food inflation. But core inflation is likely to have remained elevated by the standards of the... 8th August 2018 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Economy’s recent strength unlikely to be sustained The economy’s strength towards the end of the second quarter is partly a bounce-back from earlier weakness and is therefore unlikely to be sustained. While the growing chance of a NAFTA deal being... 7th August 2018 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Underlying wage pressures still building The June Job Opening and Labour Turnover survey provided more evidence that labour market conditions are tightening, which will keep wage growth on a steady upward trend. With few signs of a sustained... 7th August 2018 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update US midterms 2018: What's at stake? The most likely outcome of the midterm elections is legislative gridlock, although a second round of tax cuts would be unlikely even if the Republicans narrowly maintain control of both Houses of... 7th August 2018 · 1 min read
Metals Chart Pack Sentiment towards metals sours Metals prices continued to decline in July on the back of rising trade tensions, concerns about a possible downturn in demand and a deterioration in investor sentiment. We expect prices to remain weak... 7th August 2018 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Tariffs and renminbi fall won’t cause jump in inflation If carried out, China’s threat last week to expand tariffs to cover more than 70% of its imports from the US would nudge up import costs, though only very slightly. The renminbi’s recent depreciation... 7th August 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Chart Pack Consumer slowdown should prove temporary Q2’s slowdown in GDP growth to just 0.3% q/q dealt a blow to hopes that the softness of growth in the first quarter would be a one-off. While no breakdown is available yet, timely data from France and... 7th August 2018 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Midterms 2018: What's at stake? The most likely outcome of the midterm elections is legislative gridlock, although a second round of tax cuts would be unlikely even if the Republicans narrowly maintain control of both Houses of... 7th August 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Poor outlook for Vienna offices even as rents recover A high volume of completions contributed to the fall in prime office rents in Vienna in the early stages of this year. But as that supply is absorbed, rents should be able to recover again next year... 7th August 2018 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Brexit uncertainty could start to weigh more heavily There are still umpteen ways Brexit could play out, meaning that the cloud of uncertainty over the UK could linger for a long time yet. While the UK economy has weathered Brexit and political... 7th August 2018 · 1 min read
