US Housing Market Update Rise in adjustable-rate mortgage share not a concern Rising interest rates have led to an increase in the share of mortgages originated with an adjustable rate (ARMs). But the market share is still small, and the products have not been targeted at... 25th October 2018 · 1 min read
US Data Response Durable Goods & Advance Economic Indicators (Sep.) The September durable goods data confirm that equipment investment growth rebounded in the third quarter, although the recent slowdown in new orders growth suggests that strength won’t be sustained. 25th October 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkey: further rate hikes unlikely to materialise The Turkish central bank’s decision to leave interest rates unchanged today and the accompanying statement reinforce our view that last month’s aggressive rate hike didn’t represent a shift back to... 25th October 2018 · 1 min read
BoE Watch MPC to wait for Brexit fog to lift The chances of an interest rate rise at the Monetary Policy Committee’s (MPC) meeting from 0.75% on 1st November are pretty slim. We doubt the MPC will move again until the Brexit fog has lifted. 25th October 2018 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Data Response RICS Commercial Property Market Survey (Q3) The RICS Survey for Q3 showed a deterioration in tenant demand. Respondents continue to expect a modest decline in rents over the rest of the year. 25th October 2018 · 1 min read
Metals Data Response China and India’s gold imports (Sep.) The latest trade data for China and India show gold imports tumbled in September and higher gold prices in October could mean that imports remain weak, despite the Indian wedding season. 25th October 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German Ifo Survey (Oct.) The further fall in the Ifo Business Climate Indicator (BCI) in October suggests that while the German economy is still growing at a decent pace, we are unlikely to see a return to the rates of growth... 25th October 2018 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Norges Bank tightening likely to end next year Although it left its policy stance unchanged today, the Norges Bank struck a slightly more hawkish tone. We continue to think it will raise rates again next March. But even as the Bank tightens policy... 25th October 2018 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Bond markets less vulnerable to contagion from Italy Although we expect Italian bonds to remain under pressure over the coming years as the country’s fiscal and economic outlook continues to deteriorate, we think that European bond markets are generally... 25th October 2018 · 1 min read
Commodities Update What a US slowdown would mean for commodities The economic slowdown that we expect in the US over the next few years is a key factor in our generally downbeat outlook for commodity prices. 25th October 2018 · 1 min read
Metals Data Response Global Steel Production (Sep.) Growth in global steel production accelerated in September to 4.4% y/y, with mills ramping up in China and the US buoyed by healthy margins in both countries. We expect winter production cuts in China... 24th October 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economic Outlook Region set for a temporary rebound The recovery in the Middle East and North Africa will gather pace over the rest of this year and in early 2019, but growth will peak sooner than most expect. Egypt’s cyclical upturn should continue... 24th October 2018 · 1 min read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report Although crude stocks rose again, a larger-than-expected draw on gasoline stocks stole the headlines. However, we think gasoline stocks will rise again when refineries come out of maintenance. 24th October 2018 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Bank’s hawkish message points to next hike in January By replacing its pledge to raise rates at a “gradual” pace with an indication that it intends to hike by at least as much as, if not more than, markets expect, the Bank of Canada today struck a... 24th October 2018 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Chart Pack Moderation in rental value growth continues With rental values stable in September, annual all-property rental value growth slowed to 1.4% y/y, from 1.6% y/y a month earlier. This mainly reflected weakness in the retail sector. But annual... 24th October 2018 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response FHFA House Prices / New Home Sales (Aug./Sep.) New home sales dropped for the fourth month in a row in September, as rising mortgage interest rates have weighed on housing demand. House price growth has also continued to ease, with the 6.1% y/y... 24th October 2018 · 1 min read
