China Economics Weekly Equity rout hurts lending, scant relief for private firms Policymakers are worrying about the widespread use in China of shares as collateral for lending – for good reason. But the remedies announced this week are unlikely to make much of a difference as... 26th October 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russian central bank not inclined to tighten further The Russian central bank’s statement accompanying today’s Board meeting reinforces our view that September’s interest rate hike was intended as a one-off. Whereas the financial markets are pricing in... 26th October 2018 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update UK Autumn Budget 2018 - Tax Ready Reckoner This Tax Ready Reckoner illustrates the impact of various tax changes on the public finances, allowing the magnitude of any policy changes announced in the Chancellor’s Budget speech on Monday to be... 26th October 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Poor election results to prompt Polish fiscal splurge The worse-than-expected performance of the ruling PiS party in Poland’s local elections last weekend is likely to prompt policymakers in Warsaw to ramp up social spending ahead of next year’s... 26th October 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly No quick fix for Pakistan, Korea slowdown to persist Pakistan this week secured a US$6bn loan from Saudi Arabia and has plans to court Chinese money. These deals may help paper over the cracks, but they won’t solve the economy’s balance of payments... 26th October 2018 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Update Mortgage lender caution set to persist Given the risks facing the housing market, the recent rise in lenders’ risk aversion is likely to persist. This supports our view that mortgage approvals will see little growth over the next two years... 26th October 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Weekly South Africa’s budget targets growth, while Nigeria tightens South Africa’s new finance minister used this week’s budget statement to signal a shift away from further austerity, suggesting that Pretoria is prioritising support for the weak economy. Nigerian... 26th October 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Dublin office rents set to fall on rising vacancy Dublin’s large office pipeline has started to push vacancy higher, in spite of strong take-up volumes. As occupier demand softens, further increases in vacancy will start to put downward pressure on... 26th October 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Chart Pack Brazil and Argentina: reform hopes rising… for now The sharp rallies in the Argentine peso and Brazilian real reflect growing optimism that economic policymaking will improve in both countries, but markets seem to be looking through the political... 25th October 2018 · 1 min read
Global Trade Monitor Likely to lose momentum Although world trade growth has ticked up in recent months, we think that it will slow sharply in the coming year or so as global demand weakens. For now, it looks like tariffs under consideration... 25th October 2018 · 1 min read
Energy Outlook Softer demand to weigh on oil and coal Oil and coal prices look set to ease back over the next year as slower global economic activity constrains demand. At the same time, recent high prices have been incentivising supply. In contrast... 25th October 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update ECB sticks to its plans despite weaker data The ECB today reaffirmed its plans to normalise monetary policy gradually, expressing little concern about the recent run of weaker economic data or the clash between Italy and the European Commission... 25th October 2018 · 1 min read
US Employment Report Preview Hurricanes may mask the strength of payrolls We estimate that non-farm payroll gains rebounded to 185,000 in October, but this may be skewed by the uncertain impacts of Hurricane Florence and Hurricane Michael. The bigger picture is that... 25th October 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Regional growth slowed in Q3 After a strong Q2, growth in Emerging Europe as a whole slowed in Q3, from 3.5% y/y to around 2.8% y/y. In Russia and Poland, this slowdown has been relatively gradual and driven by weakness in... 25th October 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Saudi markets not out of the woods, oil prices drop The rally in Saudi Arabia’s stock market today has partially reversed the losses suffered since Jamal Khashoggi’s disappearance hit the headlines. But the threat of sanctions, coupled with falling oil... 25th October 2018 · 1 min read
