Latin America Economics Update Argentine peso’s vulnerabilities back in the spotlight A range of factors, including a fall in soybean prices, expectations of central bank intervention and political risk, appears to best explain the recent drop in the Argentine peso against the dollar... 27th November 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Chart Pack The Philippines to gain from lower oil prices Most countries in the region are net oil importers (Malaysia is the key exception) and should gain from the recent drop in oil prices, with the Philippines likely to be among the biggest beneficiaries... 27th November 2018 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Oil and industrial metals to struggle in 2019 The recent oil price crash has led some to ask if contagion might spread across commodities. However, the decline largely represented a catch-up with base metals and we think the latest drops may... 27th November 2018 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Japan’s high public debt not a reassuring example for others Even though Japan’s “true” level of government debt is not as high as the commonly-watched gross measure suggests, it is still far higher than elsewhere. The ease with which Japan nonetheless copes... 27th November 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Fiscal support will boost Polish & Czech economies Strong budget positions in Poland and the Czech Republic will allow governments to ramp up spending next year. That’s one key reason why we expect that GDP growth in 2019 in these countries will be... 27th November 2018 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Rising corporate credit spreads not just an oil story The recent pick-up in US corporate credit spreads is more than just a response to the slump in oil prices over the past couple of months. We think that it also reflects worries about the outlook for... 26th November 2018 · 1 min read
Energy Update A lot of hot air in the US natural gas market We expect that the combination of low stocks and strong demand growth will ensure that the average price of US natural gas will be higher in 2019 than in 2018, despite steadily increasing supply. 26th November 2018 · 1 min read
Capital Daily Outlook for EM equities poor, but not because of oil prices 26th November 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Focus Can the Gulf economies weather the slump in oil prices? The latest slump in oil prices is unlikely to lead to major balance sheet strains in the largest Gulf economies and, even if prices fall further to $40-50pb, dollar pegs shouldn’t come under threat... 26th November 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Russian markets hold up despite oil fall, Ukraine spat Russian financial markets have tumbled following the naval dispute with Ukraine, but the big picture is that local asset prices have held up well this month given the backdrop of falling oil prices... 26th November 2018 · 1 min read
Metals Data Response China and India Gold Imports (Oct.) Gold imports by China and India slumped on a y/y basis in October. However, we expect a rebound in imports to India in the coming months as gold prices in rupee terms have dropped back. 26th November 2018 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Vancouver housing heading for bumpy landing After the stabilisation of the Toronto housing market this year, it’s tempting to think that the deterioration in the Vancouver market will end in a soft landing. But Vancouver housing is more... 26th November 2018 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Oil price falls too far, too fast Oil prices fell by 7-8% last Friday on market fears of oversupply, but we suspect that producers will start to withhold exports in the coming months, putting a floor under prices. 26th November 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update What the fall in oil prices means for EMs The recent drop in oil prices will help Turkey’s balance of payments adjustment and should boost the terms of trade and growth in large EM oil importers including South Africa and India. The obvious... 26th November 2018 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update What the S&P’s slump tells us about the US economy While the 10% drop in the S&P 500 since early October can be partly blamed on plunging oil prices and concerns about global demand, it also seems to reflect justified fears about the US economic... 26th November 2018 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Data Response UK Finance Mortgage Lending (Oct.) Mortgage approvals for house purchase ended three months of decline with a small rise in October. But with house prices high and interest rates expected to rise next year, the outlook for lending is... 26th November 2018 · 1 min read
