DM Valuations Monitor Italian BTPs will probably continue to trade like “junk” Although Italian government bonds (BTPs) are already trading like “junk”, we think that their credit spread will rise even further next year for several reasons. 28th November 2018 · 1 min read
Global Central Bank Watch Shakier global backdrop won’t deter the Fed & ECB The Fed looks to be on course to raise interest rates by a further 25bp at its December meeting in spite of financial market jitters and disappointing news on the global economy. But as financial... 28th November 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Morocco a bright spot in the emerging world Morocco’s rapid integration into global manufacturing supply chains, particularly in the automobile sector, should spur rapid economic growth in the coming years. We expect Morocco to be one of the... 28th November 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Lower oil prices shouldn’t derail Russia’s recovery The latest fall in oil prices will reduce Russia’s export revenues, but the budget and current account should remain in surplus and a significant shift in fiscal (or monetary) policy is unlikely. As a... 28th November 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Fall in oil prices may slow pace of EM rate hikes The latest fall in oil prices means EM inflation is likely to rise more slowly. While we still expect a majority of EM central banks to hike interest rates, lower energy inflation may delay tightening... 28th November 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update No deal Brexit hit to euro-zone would be manageable Provided that it is reasonably orderly, a “no deal Brexit” would probably reduce economic activity in the euro-zone by 0.1-0.2% points next year, though the impact would be much larger for Ireland... 28th November 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Kenya’s railway: Trouble ahead, but limited debt risk It is very unlikely that the new Nairobi-Mombasa railway will, as Kenya’s government hopes, break even next year. But fears that the troubled line will push up to Kenya’s debt repayment costs are... 28th November 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Saudi Arabia Consumer Prices (Oct.) Saudi inflation increased to a six-month high in October but this rise is likely to prove fleeting. Inflation will drop sharply at the start of next year as the effects of the new value-added tax and... 28th November 2018 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Brexit scenarios – a recap This week the Bank of England and HM Treasury will publish forecasts for the economy based on both the “deal” between the UK and the EU agreed on Sunday, and a “no deal, no transition” alternative. As... 27th November 2018 · 1 min read
Canada Chart Pack Slump in oil prices negative, but not a disaster The recent slump in oil prices has invoked memories of the 2015 crash, but the Canadian economy looks less vulnerable this time round. Back then, WTI had hovered at close to $100 for four years and... 27th November 2018 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Case-Shiller / FHFA House Prices (Sep.) With higher mortgage interest rates weighing on housing demand, it is not a surprise that the FHFA and Case-Shiller reported slower annual house price growth in September. We doubt mortgage rates have... 27th November 2018 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Slump in oil prices a small plus for global growth The recent fall in oil prices should give a small boost to global economic activity in the coming year or so. Households will benefit from reduced inflation while any offsetting reduction in mining... 27th November 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi likely to push ahead with modest oil output cut The upcoming OPEC meeting is likely to result in Saudi Arabia agreeing to reduce its oil output. But we think that any cut will be at the more modest end of the spectrum as the authorities balance the... 27th November 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Kenya: Rates on hold into 2019 Kenyan policymakers left their key policy rate at 9.00% today, and we think that they will maintain the current policy stance going into next year. 27th November 2018 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Oct.) Narrow money growth continues to slow, but that is mainly due to rising interest rates, which have reduced the portfolio demand for money. The stronger pace of growth in both broad money and bank... 27th November 2018 · 1 min read
