Capital Daily Bund yields likely to rebound, even if Treasury yields fall further 30th November 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Calm in Italy won’t last We think that this week’s decline in Italian bond yields will be reversed before long, weighing on the economy. Meanwhile, data released this week showed that core inflation in the euro-zone edged... 30th November 2018 · 1 min read
Commodities Weekly The calm before the storm For the most part, commodity prices moved in a narrow range this week, but this relative stability may come to an abrupt end soon. Presidents Trump and Xi are set to dine together on Saturday at the... 30th November 2018 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly The Powell put and Trump’s gut Fed Chair Jerome Powell's language earlier this week prompted some in the markets to claim he had taken a sudden dovish turn, possibly in response to pointed criticism from President Donald Trump. We... 30th November 2018 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Weak Q3 data bode ill for Switzerland and Sweden Data released this week which showed that Swiss GDP contracted in Q3 support our view that the SNB will keep interest rates on hold longer than investors currently expect. Meanwhile, other data showed... 30th November 2018 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Data Response IPF Consensus Forecasts Over 2018, the UK commercial property sector has proved more resilient that both we, and the IPF Consensus, expected. However, a gradual upward movement in yields over the coming years is expected to... 30th November 2018 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response GDP (Q3 2018) The economy’s third-quarter performance was weaker than the headline GDP gain of 2.0% annualised suggests. Consumer spending growth slowed sharply, while investment contracted for the second quarter... 30th November 2018 · 1 min read
Frontier Markets Wrap Frontier sovereign debt worries in the spotlight Frontier market dollar debt markets have been rattled in recent months. Part of this is due to the fall in oil prices, which helps to explain the widening of spreads in Venezuela and Nigeria. But that... 30th November 2018 · 1 min read
India Data Response GDP (Q3) Indian GDP growth slowed in Q3 but remained strong by recent standards. The economy should continue to expand rapidly over the coming months, supported by looser fiscal policy ahead of next year’s... 30th November 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Pick-up in Dublin industrial rental growth won’t last Industrial rental growth in Dublin has accelerated this year. But as softer economic growth ahead dampens occupier demand, this increase in rental growth will prove temporary. 30th November 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly BoT sounding hawkish, Trump renews auto tariff threat The hawkish minutes from the Bank of Thailand’s (BoT) November meeting reaffirm our view that the central bank will raise rates by 25bp at its December meeting. Meanwhile, the Korean government’s... 30th November 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Oil lower, Russia’s response, Polish rates Lower oil prices will benefit most countries in Emerging Europe and, for the major loser, Russia, oil at $60pb is manageable – although we do think that it will agree with Saudi Arabia to cut oil... 30th November 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Italy GDP (Q3, Breakdown) The second estimate of Italy’s GDP in Q3 showed that the economy performed even worse than previously thought. And while we know that temporary disruption in the car industry weighed on the economy in... 30th November 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Brazil GDP (Q3 2018) The robust 0.8% q/q expansion in Brazilian GDP in Q3 was flattered by the recovery from disruptions caused by the truck drivers’ strike in May. That said, the improvement in the latest survey data... 30th November 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash CPI (Nov.) & Unemployment (Oct.) We doubt that November’s decline in euro-zone inflation will cause the ECB to alter its plans for a gradual normalisation of monetary policy, with asset purchases set to end next month. 30th November 2018 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Data Response Nationwide House Prices (Nov.) House price growth accelerated in November. But that didn’t alter the wider trend of slowing house price inflation. With house prices very high relative to incomes and interest rates on an upward... 30th November 2018 · 1 min read
