Global Markets Update Outlook is not bright for euro-zone peripheral bonds We think that government bonds in the euro-zone “periphery” will fare quite poorly in the next two years – particularly in Italy and Greece – as growth disappoints and deficits overshoot expectations... 22nd January 2019 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Saudi Consumer Prices (Dec.) Inflation in Saudi Arabia edged down to 2.2% y/y in December on the back of weaker food and housing inflation and we expect it to fall back into negative territory in early 2019. 22nd January 2019 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Service sector weakens as consumers hold back The detailed breakdown of China’s Q4 GDP data released today points toward softer service sector activity last quarter on the back of slower property sales and weaker consumer spending. We expect... 22nd January 2019 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Prime Minister’s sets out Brexit “Plan B” The Prime Minister’s “Plan B” is remarkably similar to Plan A, which Parliament rejected less than a week ago, so it doesn’t appear to change the near-term outlook for the economy. In that regard... 21st January 2019 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economic Outlook Central banks to tighten very slowly We expect GDP growth in Switzerland and across the Nordics to slow this year and next. As a result, price pressures should generally remain subdued and central banks look set to raise interest rates... 21st January 2019 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Update Brexit implications for property revisited The heavy defeat of Mrs May’s Brexit deal in Parliament means it is more likely that Article 50 will be extended. The greater uncertainty this implies will impact on both the UK economy and on... 21st January 2019 · 1 min read
Metals Data Response Global Aluminium Production (Dec.) European smelter closures and a further reduction in output at the Bécancour smelter in Canada saw global production growth plummet m/m in December. However, with cost pressures easing and smelters... 21st January 2019 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update What could we expect from a "soft" Brexit? With Prime Minister Theresa May now holding cross-party talks, the chances have risen of a “soft” Brexit, resulting in the UK retaining closer ties with the EU than her defeated deal would have... 18th January 2019 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update US policy rates to fall in 2020 The Fed’s promise to be “patient” is why we now forecast just one additional rate hike in the first half of this year, with the fed funds rate peaking at 2.50-2.75%. But we are increasingly confident... 18th January 2019 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Euro-gloom, Brexit fears and Greek politics This week saw more evidence that the euro-zone economy has lost a lot of momentum. Meanwhile, the UK parliament rejected the EU Withdrawal Agreement, once again raising the spectre of a no deal Brexit... 18th January 2019 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update Copper prices to stand firm this year Subdued levels of supply growth combined with increasing global demand will ensure that copper remains in a substantial market deficit and that prices will hold up well in 2019. 18th January 2019 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Households upbeat, but still price sensitive Japanese households are more positive about current economic conditions than they have been for many years but they report still being highly price sensitive, and their worries about the outlook have... 18th January 2019 · 1 min read
Commodities Weekly Commodities looking for direction from China Commodity prices have generally risen this week, in large part due to optimism about further economic stimulus in China. We are more cautious as we expect the expansionary impact of stimulus to only... 18th January 2019 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Swedish fiscal boost to have a limited impact Sweden’s new government has agreed to cut income taxes and relax labour laws. It has also brought an end to four months of political uncertainty, at least for now. But we suspect that all this will... 18th January 2019 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Home sales fall, inflation to drop back The data this week confirmed that Canadian home sales finished 2018 on a weak note, while inflation jumped back up to 2% at the end of the year. Housing sales are unlikely to rebound strongly, while... 18th January 2019 · 1 min read
