Africa Chart Pack Hope on vaccines, but still a long way to go COVID-19 vaccine coverage remains pitifully low across much of Sub-Saharan Africa, with less than 10% of populations having received at least a first dose in most countries. But there are signs that... 28th October 2021 · 11 mins read
Africa Economic Outlook Headwinds beyond vaccine woes intensifying Extremely low vaccine coverage continues to cast a dark cloud over recovery prospects in Sub-Saharan Africa and this will be compounded by deteriorations in the terms of trade and tighter fiscal... 27th October 2021 · 22 mins read
Africa Economics Update Oil woes to hold back recoveries in Angola & Nigeria Falling oil production has weighed on the Nigerian and Angolan economies, with the latter likely to suffer its sixth consecutive annual decline in GDP this year. While output should rise next year, we... 21st October 2021 · 3 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly FX orthodoxy in Nigeria? Strikes in SA, Ethiopia’s conflict Comments by Nigeria’s vice president endorsing a more market-based exchange rate regime reflect growing concern about the distortionary effects of the current FX system, but there is no evidence that... 15th October 2021 · 5 mins read
Africa Data Response Nigeria Consumer Prices (Sep.) The drop in the headline inflation rate in Nigeria, to 16.6% y/y in September, will ease pressure on the central bank to raise rates and allow policymakers to focus on supporting the economic recovery... 15th October 2021 · 2 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Signals from the SARB, Nigeria’s humdrum budget The South African Reserve Bank’s (SARB’s) Monetary Policy Review published this week put monetary policy normalisation back in the centre of attention, and it now seems that policymakers are unlikely... 8th October 2021 · 6 mins read
Africa Chart Pack Debt restructuring talks inching forward The threat of messy outcomes to Sub-Saharan Africa’s debt problems seems to have diminished recently. In Zambia, the new administration vowed to tackle debt problems and press on with restructuring... 30th September 2021 · 13 mins read
CE Spotlight Have emerging markets vanquished inflation? Low inflation is here to stay in much of the emerging world. However, there is a significant risk that inflation rises, albeit moderately, over the medium term in several countries. This risk isn’t... 27th September 2021 · 26 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly ‘BIG’ push in SA, FX distortions in Nigeria, tourism woes Momentum behind proposals for a basic income grant (BIG) in South Africa appear to be building, suggesting that the authorities are leaning towards providing more fiscal support. Elsewhere, Nigeria’s... 17th September 2021 · 7 mins read
Africa Economics Update CBN maintains interest rates and disruptive FX rules Policymakers in Nigeria kept their benchmark rate on hold at 11.50% at today’s MPC meeting and will probably continue to do so over 2021-23. And the central bank’s insistence on maintaining a strong... 17th September 2021 · 3 mins read
Africa Data Response Nigeria Consumer Prices (Aug.) The drop in the headline inflation rate in Nigeria, to 17.0% y/y in August was, once again, driven by easing food price pressures, although core inflation also eased. This is likely to reassure... 15th September 2021 · 2 mins read
OPEC Watch OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report (Sep.) The rise in OPEC’s oil output fell well short of its target in August. And given a higher oil demand forecast for 2022, alongside growing external pressure, we think that the risks are tilting towards... 13th September 2021 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Focus The pandemic and EM scarring risks The pandemic is likely to inflict lasting damage on potential growth in economies in much of Latin America, Africa and South and Southeast Asia, adding to the structural headwinds that they already... 9th September 2021 · 17 mins read
Africa Economics Update Pandemic not in the rear-view mirror for some time The economic damage from the latest COVID-19 waves across Sub-Saharan Africa appears to be smaller compared to previous waves, but low vaccination rates mean that officials will have to keep... 1st September 2021 · 5 mins read
Africa Chart Pack Economic damage report from latest virus waves The evidence from the latest COVID-19 waves sweeping through Sub-Saharan Africa point to a smaller economic blow compared to previous waves. Of course, there is a considerable degree of divergence... 27th August 2021 · 13 mins read
Africa Data Response Nigeria GDP (Q2) The pick-up in Nigeria’s headline GDP growth to 5.0% y/y in Q2 was largely reflective of favourable base effects created by the sharp downturn a year ago. It appears that the underlying pace of growth... 26th August 2021 · 2 mins read
