Africa Economics Weekly BIG a non-starter, rand on the rocks, Hichilema hired The South African authorities appear to be devoting increased attention to the idea of a permanent basic income grant (“BIG”) but, in practice, such proposals are probably dead on arrival. Meanwhile... 20th August 2021 · 6 mins read
Africa Data Response Nigeria Consumer Prices (Jul.) Policymakers will probably take comfort in the latest fall in Nigeria’s headline inflation rate, to 17.4% y/y in July, even as price pressures mount in major price categories outside of food. Interest... 17th August 2021 · 2 mins read
Africa Economics Economic fortunes changing in Zambia and South Africa? This week Zambians voted in tightly contested elections and, while the results have not yet been announced, one way or another it looks like fiscal policy will be tightened. Meanwhile in South Africa... 13th August 2021 · 6 mins read
OPEC Watch OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report (Aug.) OPEC’s oil production soared in July as Saudi Arabia unwound the bulk of its voluntary output cut. Although OPEC left its demand forecast unchanged, we think that the near-term demand outlook has... 12th August 2021 · 3 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly South Africa’s fiscal tightrope, FX reshuffling in Nigeria "Post-unrest relief measures announced by the South African authorities will probably go some way to offset the blow to the economy. The government expects to be able to stick to its fiscal... 30th July 2021 · 5 mins read
Africa Chart Pack Delta threat building The highly contagious Delta variant of COVID-19 seems to be dominant now across much of Sub-Saharan Africa and is driving new waves in many of the large economies. South Africa appears to be over the... 29th July 2021 · 10 mins read
Africa Economics Update Nigeria: rate hike risks easing, FX rules surprise Policymakers in Nigeria kept their benchmark rate on hold at 11.50% at today’s MPC meeting and, if we’re right in expecting the economic recovery to disappoint, policy settings are likely to remain... 27th July 2021 · 3 mins read
Africa Data Response Nigeria Consumer Prices (Jun.) The latest drop in Nigeria’s headline inflation rate, to 17.8% y/y in June, is likely to reassure policymakers that price pressures are softening and that policy tightening is not necessary to curb... 16th July 2021 · 2 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Nigeria’s oil reform, Angola’s debt, SA restrictions Nigeria’s long-awaited Petroleum Industry Bill is on the verge of making into law, but it probably comes too late to propel a marked turnaround in the oil sector and will not resolve many other issues... 2nd July 2021 · 5 mins read
Africa Chart Pack Third wave fears grow Worries about a third wave of COVID-19 in the region have intensified in the past month and the tightening of lockdown measures in some countries – most notably South Africa – will weigh on recoveries... 24th June 2021 · 13 mins read
Africa Data Response Nigeria Consumer Prices (May) The second consecutive drop in Nigeria’s headline inflation rate, to 17.9% y/y in May, will probably go some way towards easing policymakers’ recent concerns about high and rising inflation. While we... 15th June 2021 · 2 mins read
Africa Economics Focus The perils of deficit monetisation in Nigeria Nigeria’s government has turned to the central bank to plug ever larger budget deficits in recent years and policymakers are unlikely to kick their deficit monetisation habit, particularly if the... 14th June 2021 · 11 mins read
Africa Economics Update CBN keeps inflation-fighting tools on the shelf Policymakers in Nigeria kept their benchmark rate on hold at 11.50% at today’s MPC meeting, opting to emphasise the fragile nature of the economic recovery over elevated inflation. With price... 25th May 2021 · 3 mins read
Africa Economics Update Nigeria’s recovery to remain stuck in first gear The pick-up in Nigeria’s GDP growth in Q1 was driven in large part by the oil sector and rising oil output will support a further acceleration in growth over the coming quarters. But FX restrictions... 24th May 2021 · 3 mins read
Africa Data Response Nigeria Consumer Prices (Apr.) The slight drop in Nigeria’s headline inflation rate, to 18.1% y/y in April, on the back of easing food price pressures will provide some ammunition to the doves on the MPC and means that it is... 17th May 2021 · 2 mins read
Africa Data Response Nigeria Consumer Prices (Mar.) The latest jump in Nigerian inflation, to 18.2% y/y in March, will probably reinforce the views of the hawkish minority on the central bank’s MPC. Our base case is that the majority of MPC members... 15th April 2021 · 2 mins read
