Canada Economics Weekly Hawkish hike still likely to be the last in this cycle The Bank of Canada struck a hawkish tone at its meeting this week, emphasising persistent excess demand and sticky price inflation. Nonetheless, with the upgrades to the Bank’s GDP and inflation... 14th July 2023 · 6 mins read
US Economics Weekly Core inflationary pressures melting away The news that core CPI increased by a muted 0.16% m/m in June, which is less than 2% in annualised terms, has raised hopes that the Fed’s planned rate hike this month will be the last in this cycle... 14th July 2023 · 7 mins read
Global Markets Update When & why the stock market has ridden out a recession The stock market in the US has rarely rallied in recessions that have taken place there since the mid-1850s. Our forecast is that it will take a knock amid a recession in H2 2023 before powering ahead... 14th July 2023 · 4 mins read
US Rapid Response US Uni. Of Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Jul.) The sharp rise in the University of Michigan consumer sentiment index to 72.6 in early July, from 64.4, leaves it close to a two-year high. That said, it remains fairly weak by historic standards, and... 14th July 2023 · 2 mins read
Global Markets Update How markets might fare as US disinflation continues June’s soft US CPI print seems to have given investors renewed hope that inflation could fall back to normal levels without the economy slowing too much, if at all. We continue to think that the... 13th July 2023 · 3 mins read
Global Markets Update Why don’t TIPS yields matter anymore? Not so long ago, a higher 10-year TIPS yield almost invariably meant an underperformance of US “growth” stocks vis-à-vis their “value” peers, a lower gold price, and a stronger dollar. That’s changed... 13th July 2023 · 5 mins read
Canada Economics Update 5.0% likely to be the peak The Bank of Canada’s 25bp hike today, taking the policy rate to 5.0%, is likely to be the last in this cycle. With the labour market loosening, core inflation falling and the survey indicators... 12th July 2023 · 3 mins read
US Rapid Response Consumer Prices (Jun.) The muted 0.2% m/m rise in core consumer prices in June won’t stop the Fed from hiking rates again later this month, but it supports our view that the downward trend in core inflation is set to... 12th July 2023 · 2 mins read
US Commercial Property Apartment Metros Outlook Clear split between weak west and strong south The latest economic and property market data support the view we’ve held since last year that there would be a growing differentiation between southern and western markets. We expect that to persist... 11th July 2023 · 7 mins read
US Economic Outlook Odds still favour a mild recession We still think a mild recession over the coming quarters is more likely than not. As the economy weakens and the downward trend in core inflation gathers pace, we think interest rates will eventually... 11th July 2023 · 16 mins read
US Economics Update Limited scope for immigration to ease labour shortages The surge in immigration and improvement in labour supply has helped ease wage growth moderately. But, with limited scope for a further rapid recovery in the labour force, we think a sustained period... 10th July 2023 · 3 mins read
Canada Economics Update “Excess” savings unlikely to avert spending slowdown The recent US experience seems to suggest that the household saving rate could fall further as Canadians draw down the savings they built up during the pandemic, supporting consumption. A closer look... 10th July 2023 · 3 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Supply of both labour and housing improves The data this week showed big improvements in supply in both the labour and housing markets, which should give the Bank of Canada confidence that CPI inflation will continue to decline. We still... 7th July 2023 · 5 mins read
US Economics Weekly Labour market resilience points to July rate hike The 10-year Treasury yield climbed back above 4% this week, as markets interpreted the minutes of the mid-June FOMC meeting as hawkish and reacted to signs that, although labour market conditions may... 7th July 2023 · 6 mins read
US Commercial Property Office Metros Outlook San Francisco and Seattle values to drop 40% in 2023-25 Further downgrades to our national office outlook have driven corresponding cuts to return prospects in our metro-level forecasts this quarter. San Francisco still has the poorest outlook, with our... 7th July 2023 · 12 mins read
