US Rapid Response Employment Report (July) Non-farm payroll employment increased by 187,000 in July and, while that represented a trivial improvement on the downwardly revised 185,000 gain the month before, those are otherwise the two weakest... 4th August 2023 · 2 mins read
Global Markets Update Soft landing tailwind for “risky” assets may fade We suspect the boost to “risky” assets from the resilience of the economy may have mostly run its course. 4th August 2023 · 4 mins read
US Commercial Property Update Why we still expect 15% falls in industrial and apartment values Despite capital value falls of 7% and 9% to-date for industrial and apartments respectively, we are forecasting around 15% further value declines as cap rates rise. But the falls in appraisal-based... 3rd August 2023 · 3 mins read
Event US Drop-In: July CPI and the Fed policy outlook 1691676000 We think the Fed’s done with raising rates and won’t hike again at its September meeting – but much will depend on the next couple of inflation reports, including July’s.
Canada Economics Update Wage growth to slow despite labour strikes Despite some recent high-profile labour strikes, it still seems likely that overall wage growth will slow sharply during the next 12 months, as labour demand cools and elevated immigration boosts... 2nd August 2023 · 2 mins read
Capital Daily US Treasuries have problems, but credit ratings aren’t one The US government losing another one of its “AAA” ratings after Fitch Ratings’ downgrade decision last night is unlikely to matter much in the near term, but three points are worth highlighting. 2nd August 2023 · 4 mins read
US Commercial Property Rapid Response US Metro Employment (Jun.) Seasonally-adjusted total employment growth rose by 0.6% 3m/3m on average across the 30 metros we track for the third consecutive month. But there has been clear weakness in the information sector in... 2nd August 2023 · 3 mins read
US Housing Market Rapid Response Mortgage Applications (Jul.) June’s rebound in mortgage applications for home purchase was short-lived as total applications fell by 1.7% in July. This pushed applications back down toward 30-year lows and was probably prompted... 2nd August 2023 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Slower pace of labour market loosening Falling vacancies in sectors where wage growth has been particularly strong will provide some comfort to the Fed, however the JOLTS survey showed that the broader labour market remained resilient in... 1st August 2023 · 2 mins read
Capital Daily “Risky” assets may face a harder road to further gains Some measures of market risk premia have become quite low, suggesting to us that the bar for further big gains in risky assets has risen. 1st August 2023 · 4 mins read
US Rapid Response ISM Manufacturing Index (Jul.) The modest improvement in the ISM manufacturing index to 46.4 in July, from 46.0, suggests the manufacturing downturn may be bottoming out. But it still points to a fairly steep decline in... 1st August 2023 · 2 mins read
US Economics Update Credit conditions remain tight The Fed’s latest Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey shows that, even though the banking crisis has faded, credit conditions remain unusually tight. Although the net percentage of banks tightening... 31st July 2023 · 2 mins read
Energy Focus The implications of EV rollouts on DM oil demand The message from electric vehicle sales data is now clear: the EV revolution is alive and kicking and poses important implications for oil demand. We are slightly more optimistic on the pace of EV... 31st July 2023 · 19 mins read
US Housing Market Update Unpriced climate risks in US residential property Climate change is expected to intensify the scale and frequency of flooding over the coming years. Housing markets in the US have yet to fully price in these risks, leaving many properties... 31st July 2023 · 5 mins read
