US Economics Weekly Weaker data likely to limit Fed to one more rate hike The Fed put its rate hiking cycle on pause this week but, in a hawkish shift, its new projections showed the median fed funds rate rising to 5.6% by year-end, which is consistent with 50bp of... 16th June 2023 · 5 mins read
Global Markets Update Investors may be underestimating eventual rate cuts How low Fed and ECB policy rates will go, when they are eventually normalised, is at least as important for financial markets as the precise timings of the ends of tightening cycles, in our view. We... 16th June 2023 · 4 mins read
US Data Response Retail Sales & Industrial Production (May) The 0.3% m/m increase in retail sales included a 1.4% m/m gain in the value of motor vehicle sales, which is very hard to square with the 6.5% m/m decline in light vehicle unit sales already reported... 15th June 2023 · 2 mins read
Canada Data Response Manufacturing Sales (Apr.) The resilience of manufacturing sales suggests easing supply shortages are still supporting activity, with the transport sector reaping much of the benefits. Nevertheless, the surveys point to a... 15th June 2023 · 2 mins read
US Economics Update Fed pauses, but eyes 50bp in additional rate hikes As expected, the Fed held its policy rate unchanged at between 5.00% and 5.25% today, but it made clear in the accompanying statement that pause was only to allow officials to “assess additional... 15th June 2023 · 3 mins read
US Commercial Property Update Ranking metros by physical climate risks to real estate Florida and other parts of the Sunbelt (notably major cities in Texas) will likely face the most severe physical climate risk over the next 30 years. While this is unlikely to come as a major surprise... 14th June 2023 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily Sticky UK inflation is unlikely to keep Gilt yields higher forever The 10-year Gilt yield has continued to march higher on the back of recent data releases, outpacing the equivalent Treasury yield and putting upward pressure on the pound against the greenback. But we... 13th June 2023 · 6 mins read
US Data Response Consumer Prices (May) Headline CPI inflation fell to a more than two-year low of 4.0% in May, thanks to favourable base effects and another sharp drop back in energy prices last month but, with core price inflation still... 13th June 2023 · 2 mins read
US Commercial Property Rapid Response Commercial Property Lending (May) While bank net lending to commercial real estate (CRE) turned positive again in May, growing signs of distress for existing loans point to further weakness ahead. The $13.7bn growth in loans secured... 12th June 2023 · 3 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Conflicting signals for the Bank The fall in employment in May suggests the Bank might not need to follow its 25bp hike this week with another in July. But with employment among prime-age people continuing to rise strongly and house... 9th June 2023 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily What to make of the S&P 500’s latest bull market We doubt the stock market rally will extend much further over the rest of this year. 9th June 2023 · 8 mins read
