Capital Daily Still far from an unsustainable US stock market valuation Although the US stock market has started to come under pressure from rising Treasury yields, the valuation of equities relative to government bonds is still a long way from being as stretched as it... 18th August 2023 · 6 mins read
US Commercial Property Update Apartment completions likely to stay strong until 2025 We continue to expect historic highs for apartment completions in 2023-24 even though there are signs some will be deferred. This also means that, although new permits have dropped back amid softer... 18th August 2023 · 3 mins read
US Economics Weekly Markets on edge ahead of Jackson Hole The continued surge in long-term Treasury yields to their highest level since before the financial crisis, as expectations of an economic re-acceleration have mounted, sets a fraught backdrop ahead of... 18th August 2023 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily The Fed looks to be done… so why aren’t Treasury yields? The continued rise in Treasury yields, following what may well have been the Fed’s final interest rate hike last month, contrasts with the experience of recent tightening cycles. But we still expect... 17th August 2023 · 4 mins read
Canada Economics Update Housing Watch (Aug.) The decline in the home sales-to-new listing ratio in July supports our forecast that house price growth will slow over the rest of the year. While housing starts remained high in July, they still... 17th August 2023 · 4 mins read
US Chart Pack US Chart Pack (Aug. 2023) Growth in the real economy appears to be gathering momentum, but with survey-based indicators still weak and credit conditions continuing to tighten, we expect that rebound to be short-lived. In... 16th August 2023 · 1 min read
US Rapid Response Industrial Production (Jul.) The 1.0% m/m surge in industrial production in July was partly due to a weather-related jump in utilities output and, although manufacturing output also rebounded by a solid 0.5%, the surveys suggest... 16th August 2023 · 2 mins read
US Commercial Property Update How remote work could impact US city revenues On the back of the remote work revolution, US downtowns have seen reduced office-led footfall and rising crime rates. Cities will need to be proactive to drive conversion to alternative use and to... 15th August 2023 · 4 mins read
Canada Rapid Response Consumer Prices (Jul.) While the continued above-target gains in the CPI-trim and CPI-median core measures may cause some concern for the Bank of Canada, there were still some encouraging disinflationary signs in the July... 15th August 2023 · 3 mins read
US Rapid Response Retail Sales (Jul.) The 0.7% m/m jump in retail sales in July suggests that tighter monetary policy is still having remarkably little impact on real economic activity, but that isn’t necessarily a problem for the Fed... 15th August 2023 · 2 mins read
US Commercial Property Rapid Response Commercial Property Lending (July) July saw the amount of outstanding debt secured against real estate rise (albeit marginally) after a sharp drop in June, driven by a strong rebound in residential lending. Across the commercial real... 14th August 2023 · 4 mins read
FX Markets Weekly Wrap “Soft landing” hopes boost dollar despite soft CPI report In spite of last week’s weak US payrolls report and this week’s soft CPI data, the dollar has, on net, risen against all other major currencies this week. This may be partly a result of hawkish... 11th August 2023 · 8 mins read
US Economics Weekly Inflation and activity data at odds The sudden burst of disinflationary pressure, partly due to a moderation in non-housing core services, is another reason to doubt the narrative that the real activity is gathering momentum. 11th August 2023 · 8 mins read
