Asset Allocation Update What the bond market swings could mean for equities The big swings in Treasury yields recently have sent some ripples through the US stock market. This Update sets out how we think this will continue to play out, for the equity market as a whole and... 11th August 2023 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily Falling US inflation may continue to benefit “safe” assets We think disinflationary pressures will help the Fed pivot to rate cuts sooner than investors expect, giving a boost to “safe” assets this year and next. 10th August 2023 · 4 mins read
US Rapid Response Consumer Prices (July) The disinflationary pressures continued to build in July, with both headline and core CPI increasing by a moderate 0.2% m/m. Admittedly, the annual headline inflation rate actually ticked up to 3.2%... 10th August 2023 · 3 mins read
Asset Allocation Update The mixed recession signals from US HY bonds & CMBS The stark and unusual contrast between falling credit spreads of high-yield (HY) corporate bonds and rising ones of private-label commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) in the US suggests... 10th August 2023 · 4 mins read
US Commercial Property Update Is there real evidence of an office 'flight to quality'? The data show a small, but limited, divergence in performance between overall class A and classes B and C office space. But that differential appears to have been driven by newly-built " trophy" space... 9th August 2023 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily We think oil’s muted impact on markets will continue Despite oil prices hitting new year-to-date highs, other factors seem to be dominating the effect of rising oil prices on equity, bond, and FX markets. Even if, as we expect, oil prices edge lower... 9th August 2023 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily A brighter future for banks may require one for the economy The share prices of US banks have recovered some ground since a low point in May, as concerns about further failures in the industry have abated; Treasury yields have rebounded; and the economy has... 8th August 2023 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily More yield curve “disinversion”, perhaps, but not like that We think the 10-year/2-year Treasury yield spread will become less inverted over the next year or so, but doubt this will come primarily via a continued rise in the 10-year yield like we saw last week... 7th August 2023 · 4 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly More reasons for the Bank to remain on hold The further rise in the unemployment rate in July and signs that the housing market is cooling again are both reasons to doubt that the Bank of Canada will raise interest rates further. 4th August 2023 · 5 mins read
US Economics Weekly Inflation pressure dissipating The news that average hourly earnings growth increased by 0.4% m/m in July, and 4.4% over the past 12 months, might seem like a problem for the Fed. With productivity growth accelerating, however, it... 4th August 2023 · 6 mins read
Global Markets Update Three thoughts on the US credit rating downgrade The US government losing another one of its “AAA” ratings after Fitch Ratings’ downgrade decision this week is more symbol than substance. But three key related points are worth highlighting. 4th August 2023 · 5 mins read
US Rapid Response Employment Report (July) Non-farm payroll employment increased by 187,000 in July and, while that represented a trivial improvement on the downwardly revised 185,000 gain the month before, those are otherwise the two weakest... 4th August 2023 · 2 mins read
Global Markets Update Soft landing tailwind for “risky” assets may fade We suspect the boost to “risky” assets from the resilience of the economy may have mostly run its course. 4th August 2023 · 4 mins read
