US Rapid Response Consumer Prices (Mar.) Alongside the pick-up in monthly payroll employment gains, the third consecutive 0.4% m/m rise in core CPI pretty much kills off hopes of a June rate cut from the Fed. The annual core CPI inflation... 10th April 2024 · 2 mins read
US Commercial Property Update Consensus still moving in our direction The latest consensus figures have moved closer to our own total returns forecasts for the next three years. But they continue to expect a lower path for Treasury yields implying a smaller cap rate... 9th April 2024 · 3 mins read
US Housing Market Update Rising home listings won’t derail our price forecast We think that reports of a wave of new resale supply coming onto the market are overblown. While the number of homes being listed for sale has increased compared to last year, it is still low by... 9th April 2024 · 3 mins read
US Economics Update Falling full-time employment not a sign of weakness The rise in part-time employment is not a sign of economic weakness, but instead reflects the large inflow of prime-age women into the labour force, who have been the big beneficiaries of the post... 8th April 2024 · 4 mins read
US Commercial Property Office Metros Outlook Value falls of 25% still to come in worst-hit markets Our latest office metro forecasts highlight a continued divergence between southern metros and the western and major markets. That difference in performance will be driven by a smaller hit to demand... 8th April 2024 · 7 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Insolvency data make for grim reading The insolvency data released this week show the toll that high interest rates are putting on consumers and businesses. That is unlikely to be enough to persuade the Bank of Canada to cut interest... 5th April 2024 · 3 mins read
US Economics Weekly Supercore inflation fundamentals still improving This week brought more good news on the outlook for so-called supercore inflation. 5th April 2024 · 7 mins read
Canada Rapid Response Canada Labour Force Survey (Mar. 2024) The jump in the unemployment rate in March, together with evidence of easing wage pressures, raises the chance of the Bank of Canada surprising markets with a rate cut next week, although our base... 5th April 2024 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response Employment Report (Mar.) The blockbuster 303,000 increase in non-farm payrolls in March supports the Fed’s position that the resilience of the economy means it can take its time with rate cuts, which might now not begin until... 5th April 2024 · 3 mins read
US Commercial Property Apartment Metros Outlook Houston climbs to the top of the apartment rankings We expect a surge in completions and a slowdown in employment growth to push vacancy higher in most of our 17 metros over the next year or so. Atlanta and Houston are two key exceptions to this rule... 4th April 2024 · 7 mins read
US Economics Update Surging stock market a tailwind for consumers The continued surge in the stock market that we forecast is likely to drive household net wealth to a record high as a share of incomes and provide a tailwind to consumption growth. But that shouldn’t... 4th April 2024 · 3 mins read
Bank of Canada Watch Case for cuts strengthening While the recent inflation data have strengthened the case for interest rate cuts, we suspect that the Bank of Canada will need at least one more month of similar data before it loosens policy. The... 3rd April 2024 · 6 mins read
US Housing Market Rapid Response US Mortgage Applications (Mar. 2024) Mortgage rates dipping back below 7% helped mortgage applications for home purchase edge slightly higher in March. But recent increases in the 10-year Treasury yield point to mortgage rates climbing... 3rd April 2024 · 2 mins read
Canada Chart Pack Canada Chart Pack (Mar. 2024) The economy made a strong start to the year, but that was largely due to temporary factors that will soon fade. With spare capacity emerging, particularly in the labour market, downward progress on... 2nd April 2024 · 1 min read
