US Rapid Response

Fed Policy Announcement (May)

The Fed admitted in the statement issued after today’s FOMC meeting that “in recent months, there has been a lack of further progress toward the… 2% inflation objective”. Otherwise, today’s statement...

1st May 2024 · 1 min read

US Economics Update

Dollar's strength not a threat to US economy

The dollar’s rise is attracting a lot of attention, but is nowhere near big enough yet to have any significant impact on US inflation, although it does appear to be weighing on exports. In real trade...

1st May 2024 · 4 mins read

Capital Daily

Taking stock of the recent surge in Treasury yields

We doubt the recent rise in US bond yields will continue much further, or significantly undermine the prospects of US equities.

1st May 2024 · 4 mins read

US Economics Update

Labour demand easing, wage growth more resilient

The March JOLTS data showed clearer signs that labour market tightness is continuing to ease. Slower downward progress in wage growth could be concerning, but for now it still appears to be moving...

1st May 2024 · 2 mins read

US Rapid Response

US ISM Manufacturing Index (Apr. 2024)

The fall in the ISM manufacturing index back below the theoretical 50.0 no-change level in April suggests that the nascent recovery in the manufacturing sector may already have gone into reverse...

1st May 2024 · 2 mins read

US Housing Market Rapid Response

US Case-Shiller/FHFA House Prices (Feb. 2024)

The substantial shortage of existing homes for sale fueled a robust 0.4% m/m rise in house prices in February, consistent with our above-consensus call that house price growth will end 2024 at 5% y/y.

30th April 2024 · 2 mins read

Canada Rapid Response

Canada GDP (Feb. 2024)

Despite the weaker-than-expected rise in GDP in February, first-quarter growth still looks to be close to 2.5% annualised. The weaker flash estimate for March points to less momentum going into the...

30th April 2024 · 2 mins read

US Rapid Response

Employment Cost Index (Q1)

The persistence of wage growth is another reason for the Fed to take its time on rate cuts. According to the first-quarter employment cost index, civilian wages increased at a 1.1% non-annualised pace...

30th April 2024 · 2 mins read

US Economics Update

Trump, the Fed, and the dollar

Most of the major policy initiatives being suggested by Donald Trump’s campaign would be inflationary; whether it’s narrowing the trade deficit via tariffs or a dollar devaluation, curbing immigration...

29th April 2024 · 5 mins read

Event

EM Drop-In: What Trump’s return would mean for emerging markets

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A second Trump presidency would almost certainly lead to a protectionist lurch from the US, with profound implications for the emerging world.

US Commercial Property Update

NCREIF Q1 NPI shows more pain to come

While the headline of the Q1 NCREIF NPI data (-0.9% q/q total return) suggests we could be near the end of the price falls, we think this simply stored up bigger falls for the rest of the year. The...

26th April 2024 · 3 mins read

Capital Daily

Higher yields no insurmountable obstacle for the NASDAQ

The NASDAQ 100 has shrugged off this week’s surge in real US Treasury yields amid a mixed bag of earnings reports from some of the ‘Magnificent 7’. (See Chart 1.) This suggests to us that the earlier...

26th April 2024 · 5 mins read

Canada Economics Weekly

Data favour the doves

The latest Summary of Deliberations showed division among the Governing Council about when it will be appropriate to cut interest rates. The data released since the April meeting favour the doves...

26th April 2024 · 6 mins read

US Economics Weekly

Have soft landing hopes been dashed?

The slowdown in first-quarter GDP growth to 1.6% annualised, from 3.4%, was more marked than expected, but it was principally due to a bigger drag from the net exports and inventories categories. With...

26th April 2024 · 7 mins read

US Rapid Response

Income & Spending (Mar.)

The slightly bigger-than-expected 3.7% annualised first-quarter gain in the core PCE deflator was principally because January’s gain was revised up to 0.50% from 0.45%. Nevertheless, the 0.32%...

26th April 2024 · 1 min read