Canada Data Response GDP by Industry (Oct.) October's stronger-than-consensus GDP growth of 0.3% m/m suggests that activity began the fourth quarter on a solid footing. For the quarter as a whole, we now think that the economy will expand by... 23rd December 2013 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Tapering was always going to be a damp squib We weren’t surprised by the Fed’s decision to begin tapering its monthly asset purchases, but we didn’t anticipate that it might not halt those purchases completely until late next year. As the... 23rd December 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Mega-project investments unlikely to kick-in soon enough The many large-scale energy-related investment projects that are in the works are certainly an encouraging sign for the longer-term economic outlook. With many of these projects still awaiting final... 20th December 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Consumer Prices (Nov.) & Retail Sales (Oct.) With core inflation unexpectedly falling even closer to the bottom of the 1% to 3% target range in November, the Bank of Canada will be more worried than before about the downside risks to inflation. 20th December 2013 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Existing Home Sales (Nov.) The further decline in existing home sales to 4.90 million annualised in November, from 5.12 million the month before, reflects the continuing impact of the marked rise in mortgage rates earlier this... 19th December 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Economic Outlook Policy flexibility limits downside economic risks We anticipate only a modest pick-up in the growth rates of exports and business investment, which will be more than offset by the impact of an outright decline in residential investment and slower... 19th December 2013 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Fed decision no turning point for markets Although the timing of the Fed’s decision to taper its asset purchases came as surprise to the majority (although not to us), the announcement has not proved so far to be the turning point for markets... 19th December 2013 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Fed begins gradual QE taper Our non-consensus view that the Fed would begin to wind down its monthly asset purchases without further delay in December was proved correct. As we suggested, at the conclusion of the two-day FOMC... 18th December 2013 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Housing Starts (Sep., Oct. & Nov. 13) The strong rise in housing starts in November is an encouraging sign that homebuilders have not been overly spooked by higher mortgage interest rates. And with starts still below the level needed... 18th December 2013 · 1 min read
US Chart Pack Retail sales growth accelerating The recent pick-up in the growth rate of underlying retail sales suggests that we are finally seeing a strengthening in domestic demand. It may well be sustained too. Coming out of the recession, the... 17th December 2013 · 1 min read
US Data Response Consumer Prices (Nov.) & Current Account (Q3) We’re not convinced that the low rate of inflation in November will prevent the Fed from announcing tomorrow that it will begin to taper its asset purchases, although the decision remains finely... 17th December 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Survey of Manufacturing (Oct.) October's surprisingly strong gain in manufacturing sales volumes was largely due to the strength of the rebound in food sales. The weakness of sales in most other categories and the downward trend in... 17th December 2013 · 1 min read
US Data Response Industrial Production (Nov.) The strong increase in November took the level of industrial production back above the pre-recession peak for the first time and provided more evidence that economic growth is gaining momentum. 16th December 2013 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Nov.) Broad money growth continues to slow very gradually but, with the annual growth rate of our M3 measure still at a healthy 5.8% in November, there is no reason for concern, particularly not when... 16th December 2013 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Strong pace of sales growth also supports QE taper Last week we learned that business inventories and sales both posted sizeable gains in October, while the retail sales figures showed another decent gain in November. As a result, we now expect fourth... 16th December 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Canada still facing multitude of risks The Bank of Canada's latest semi-annual Financial System Review was a stark reminder that a lot could go wrong for Canada over the next year or two. While highlighting the progress in Europe, it now... 16th December 2013 · 1 min read
