US Data Response Industrial Production (Oct.) & Empire State Index (Nov.) There is no evidence that the fall in industrial production in October is a temporary effect triggered by the government shutdown that will be reversed in November. But equally, the rise in... 15th November 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Survey of Manufacturing (Sep.) September's stronger than expected increase in manufacturing sales volumes indicate that monthly GDP grew by a respectable 0.2% m/m. For the third quarter as a whole, this suggests some slight upside... 15th November 2013 · 1 min read
US Data Response Int. Trade (Sep.) and Productivity & ULC (Q3) The trade deficit widened to a four-month high of $41.8bn in September, from $38.7bn, suggesting that third-quarter GDP growth will need to be revised down to around 2.5% annualised, from 2.8%. 14th November 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response International Merchandise Trade (Sep.) September's trade figures confirm that, for the third quarter as a whole, exports were a material drag on GDP growth, which we estimate was 2.5% annualised. 14th November 2013 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Yellen plays the continuity card At her Senate nomination hearing today, the current Fed Vice Chair Janet Yellen carefully defended the Fed's policy and regulatory actions over the past few years, suggesting that her approach will... 14th November 2013 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Chart Pack More signs of a slowdown in housing market activity The latest data provide further evidence that housing market activity has come off the boil. Existing home sales declined in September, and the sharp drop in pending home sales points to more falls... 14th November 2013 · 1 min read
US Economics Focus The rising costs of QE The further rise in the long-term costs of QE means that a smaller improvement in the economic data than before may be needed to prompt the Fed to slow the pace of its asset purchases. At the margin... 13th November 2013 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Will rising corporate bond yields put pressure on US equities? The earnings yield of a stock market index should be closely related to the average real yield of long-dated bonds issued by its constituents. In the US, we think the latter is likely to rise... 13th November 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Teranet-National Bank House Prices (Oct.) The further acceleration in annual house price growth to 3.1% in October, from 2.7%, reflects the recent rebound in home sales. Since the latter largely reflects a rush to take advantage of low... 13th November 2013 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Focus Is the multi-family sector becoming overbuilt? Multi-family construction activity has bounced back strongly since the crash. But the pipeline of multi-family homes under construction does not look particularly large relative to the stock of... 13th November 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Federal government turning more cautious on economy After enjoying a stronger than expected 2012-13 fiscal year, the Federal government is taking a cautious approach and sticking with its previous timetable to eliminate the budget deficit by 2015. With... 12th November 2013 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Market implications of a shift in the Fed’s financial repression There is growing speculation that when the Fed eventually announces a tapering of its asset purchases, it will simultaneously lower its unemployment rate threshold. A commitment to keep rates lower... 11th November 2013 · 1 min read
US Economics Focus Income inequality is not holding the economy back The rise in income inequality may not be morally defensible or socially desirable but, for now at least, it doesn't appear to be restraining economic growth. 11th November 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Canadian oil prices should bounce back soon The capacity constraints affecting cross-border pipelines and outages at major US refineries have caused a backup in Canadian oil inventories, temporarily depressing Canadian oil prices. But as these... 11th November 2013 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Moving the goal posts could dent the Fed's credibility Lowering the unemployment rate threshold would appear to be a neat way for the Fed to commit to leaving interest rates at near-zero for longer and perhaps offset any tightening in financial conditions... 11th November 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Labour Force Survey (Oct.) October's moderate 13,200 increase in employment, which was only slightly above the consensus estimate of 11,000, is further evidence that the economy is struggling to produce any material improvement... 8th November 2013 · 1 min read
