Canada Economics Update Business profits and investment likely to slow The slowdown in third-quarter business profit growth and the more recent pullback in commodity prices suggest that investment growth will remain lacklustre. Accordingly, the Bank of Canada's hopes of... 26th November 2013 · 1 min read
US Data Response Conf. Board Consumer Confidence (Nov.) Despite a strengthening labour market, record-high equity prices and lower gasoline prices, the Conference Board measure of consumer confidence actually fell to a seven-month low of 70.4 in November... 26th November 2013 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Case-Shiller Home Prices (Q3 13) National US house prices posted another solid gain in Q3 and are now rising at double-digit rates year-on-year. But this may well mark the peak of annual house price gains. 26th November 2013 · 1 min read
US Chart Pack Economic growth grinding higher The pick-up in GDP growth to 2.8% annualised in the third quarter, from 2.5% in the second, suggests that as the fiscal drag fades, the recovery is strengthening. On the whole, the latest monthly data... 25th November 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly OECD's call for higher interest rates misplaced The OECD's suggestion that the Bank of Canada may need to raise interest rates soon is misplaced for two reasons. First, it underestimates the amount of monetary policy stimulus that will be needed to... 25th November 2013 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Fed looking to change the mix rather than stance of policy The Fed is clearly looking to offset the market impact from any decision to wind down its asset purchases by strengthening its commitment to leave its policy rate at near-zero for several more years... 25th November 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Consumer Price Index (Oct.) October's muted core inflation reading illustrates the considerable economic slack that remains and supports the Bank of Canada's recent decision to discard its tightening bias. With an acceleration... 22nd November 2013 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Is slowing globalisation a threat to the US stock market? Labour’s share of income has plummeted in the United States during the past decade. This has provided an important prop to the stock market because its flipside has been a surge in the share of income... 21st November 2013 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update Foreclosure overhang weighing on New York and New Jersey The rise in the foreclosure inventory in New York and New Jersey in the third quarter provides one more reason to think that housing market prospects in these two States are relatively weak. 21st November 2013 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Fed minutes suggest December taper not out of the question The key takeaway from the minutes of the late October FOMC meeting is that, despite the government shutdown, the Fed was still open to tapering its monthly asset purchases at the mid-December meeting. 20th November 2013 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Existing Home Sales (Oct. 13) The further decline in existing home sales in October is the result of the earlier hike in mortgage interest rates. The immediate outlook for existing home sales is negative, but the loosening in... 20th November 2013 · 1 min read
US Data Response Retail Sales & Consumer Prices (Oct.) The acceleration in retail sales growth in October is one of a few reasons why the Fed is unlikely to be too concerned by the fall in CPI inflation to a four-year low of 1.0%, from 1.2% in September. 20th November 2013 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Oct.) The annual growth rate of our M3* measure of broad money remained at just under 6% in October. In contrast, the growth rates of the narrower M1 and M2 aggregates continue to trend lower. 19th November 2013 · 1 min read
US Economics Focus Drop in participation rate more structural than cyclical The push by the Fed to delay tapering its asset purchases and possibly to lower its unemployment rate threshold suggests that officials expect the participation rate to rebound. We're not convinced... 18th November 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Tighter mortgage rules could worsen future housing correction Finance Minister Jim Flaherty's latest threat to intervene in the housing market appears ill-timed. Although the recent pick-up in existing home sales points to some acceleration in house price... 18th November 2013 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Boost to spending from lower gasoline prices will be small The recent decline in gasoline prices has prompted speculation that it could provide a very timely boost to real income and spending. Gasoline prices normally decline at this time of year, however, so... 18th November 2013 · 1 min read
