US Economics Update Federal budget improvement may not last The decline in the Federal budget deficit over the past few years has been impressive, but the longer-term budget challenges linked principally to the aging of the population have still to be resolved... 4th February 2014 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update Is the growing market share of ARMs cause for concern? The growing take up of adjustable-rate mortgages (ARMs) does not look like a long-term threat to the stability of the housing market. Even after recent gains, the size of the ARM market is small. And... 4th February 2014 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Don't panic The sharp drop in January's ISM manufacturing index has led to some speculation that the US recovery might be coming off the rails, particularly as it followed an unexpectedly weak gain in payroll... 4th February 2014 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response CoreLogic House Prices (Dec.13) The final CoreLogic house price reading of 2013 showed that house prices rose by 11% last year. But the year-on-year rate of gains softened in the closing months of the year and is likely to weaken... 4th February 2014 · 1 min read
US Economics Update New PPI data won't predict CPI inflation any better The revamp of the producer prices data will provide a more comprehensive measure of pipeline price pressures, but it may not give us a greater insight into where consumer price inflation is heading. 4th February 2014 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Mortgage demand plummets The Fed's latest Senior Loan Officer Survey indicates that the jump in borrowing costs last year is still undermining demand for residential mortgages. The more recent drop back in mortgage rates... 3rd February 2014 · 1 min read
US Data Response ISM Manufacturing Index (Jan.) The unexpected plunge in the ISM manufacturing index to an eight-month low of 51.3 in January, from 56.5, appears to have more to do with the unseasonably severe winter weather, than a major slowdown... 3rd February 2014 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Is it right to blame Fed tapering for the EM sell-off? Many equity investors will be happy to see the back of January, but several lessons are worth underlining. In short, the gradual scaling back of the Fed’s asset purchases alone still seems unlikely to... 3rd February 2014 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Fed right to ignore emerging market turmoil The Fed is only concerned with the US economy's performance and the recent bout of emerging market turmoil poses little threat to that. It is worth remembering that despite the currency crises which... 3rd February 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Bank of Canada can't ignore emerging market turmoil The recent turmoil in emerging markets is a knock to Canada's trade and commodity dependent economy that the Bank of Canada can't ignore. Although it has only had a modest negative impact on Canada's... 3rd February 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response GDP by Industry (Nov.) November's steady GDP growth of 0.2% m/m supports our view that the economy grew by an annualised 3.0% in the final quarter of last year. 31st January 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Stronger wages and salaries growth unlikely to last The recent non-farm payroll figures suggest that wages and salaries growth continued to accelerate in the fourth quarter, which should have helped support stronger consumption growth. 31st January 2014 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Homeownership and Vacancy Rates (Q4 13) The slight decline in the homeownership rate at the end of last year is a reminder that, even though the housing market is recovering, the share of the population who own their home probably has... 31st January 2014 · 1 min read
US Employment Report Preview Payrolls rebound as weather effects fade Our econometric model suggests that the sharp slowdown in jobs growth in December, which resulted in payroll employment rising by just 74,000, was due to temporary factors that are unlikely to have... 31st January 2014 · 1 min read
US Data Response GDP (Q4 1st Estimate) When we take into account the near three-week Federal government shutdown at the start of the quarter, the 3.2% annualised gain in fourth-quarter GDP growth is pretty impressive, particularly since it... 30th January 2014 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Fed continues gradual QE taper Despite last minute suggestions from some commentators that the emerging markets wobble could prompt a delay, the Fed opted to continue the gradual winding down of its asset purchases today, reducing... 29th January 2014 · 1 min read
