Canada Chart Pack Faster economic growth won't be sustained Canada's economic growth rate has rebounded slightly after the disconcerting slowdown in the second half of last year. Growth remains overly dependent on unsustainable household borrowing, however... 4th December 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Bank of Canada shuffling closer to a rate cut Although the Bank of Canada maintained its neutral stance as expected, its policy statement showed that it does have more concerns about the growth and inflation outlook, just not enough right now to... 4th December 2013 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response New Home Sales (Sep. 13 & Oct. 13) New home sales were still suffering the effects of the rise in mortgage interest rates in September, but fully made up for their earlier weakness in October. In other words, higher rates do not appear... 4th December 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response International Merchandise Trade (Oct.) October's decline in export volumes illustrates that any export-led recovery is still some way off. This supports our view that fourth-quarter GDP growth will slow to a very underwhelming 1.5%... 4th December 2013 · 1 min read
US Data Response International Trade (Oct.) & ADP Payrolls (Nov.) The trade deficit narrowed to $40.6bn in October, from $43.0bn, but that decline only partly reversed the widening in September. Looking through the month-to-month volatility, the trade deficit... 4th December 2013 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Mortgage Applications (Nov 13.) The slight rise in mortgage applications for home purchase in November was not enough to undo earlier falls. But it was a step in the right direction and we expect mortgage activity to pick up... 4th December 2013 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response CoreLogic House Prices (Oct. 13) With the release of the CoreLogic house price index for October it’s clear that the pace of monthly house price gains has accelerated in recent months. But we continue to expect price gains to slow... 3rd December 2013 · 1 min read
US Data Response ISM Manufacturing Index (Nov.) The unexpected increase in the ISM manufacturing index to a two-and-a-half year high of 57.3 in November, from 56.4, suggests that activity is receiving a boost from both stronger domestic and... 2nd December 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Currency depreciation will prevent deflation The recent softening in underlying inflation, which has been partly driven by the widening output gap, has triggered speculation that Canada faces the risk of a deflation developing, particularly if... 2nd December 2013 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Cutting the IOER rate would be too risky Cutting the interest on excess reserves (IOER) rate may seem like a simple way for the Fed to signal its intent to leave short rates at near-zero for several more years, at the same time as it begins... 2nd December 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response GDP (Q3 2013) Although the pick-up in third-quarter GDP growth is encouraging, it partly reflects the rebound from flooding in Alberta and the construction strike in Quebec. Unfortunately, the details show a... 29th November 2013 · 1 min read
Bank of Canada Watch Bank likely to pause before signalling policy easing Following the downgrading of its economic outlook and dropped tightening bias, the recent economic data have been just about strong enough to allow the Bank of Canada to stand pat at next week's... 27th November 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Low quality job creation to restrain income growth It is encouraging that, even allowing for the modest drop back in September, the payroll survey suggests employment growth picked up in the third quarter. Unfortunately, over the past year, payroll... 27th November 2013 · 1 min read
US Employment Report Preview Good enough to taper? Our econometric model indicates that non-farm payroll employment rose by a solid 180,000 in November, which may be enough to prompt the Fed to taper its asset purchases at the policy meeting in... 27th November 2013 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update What impact would RMB liberalisation have on Treasuries? The People’s Bank of China (PBC) recently asserted that its intervention in the currency market would “basically” end. If this proves to be the case, it would represent a significant change of heart... 27th November 2013 · 1 min read
US Data Response Durable Goods (Oct.) The continuing slump in non-defence capital goods (ex. aircraft) orders and shipments suggests that business equipment investment might contract over the entire second half of this year. 27th November 2013 · 1 min read
