US Economics Weekly Economic outlook brightening Our latest calculations indicate that fourth-quarter GDP growth was as much as 3.5%. (We have raised our estimate from 3.0% on the back of the release of December's retail sales figures and November's... 20th January 2014 · 1 min read
US Data Response Uni. of Mich. Consumer Confidence (Jan.) Despite record high stock markets and gradually improving labour market conditions, the University of Michigan's measure of consumer confidence dropped back to 80.4 in January, from 82.5. Nevertheless... 17th January 2014 · 1 min read
US Data Response Industrial Production (Dec.) With both domestic and overseas demand improving, the timid increase in industrial production in December does little to alter our view that 2014 could be a stellar year for American producers. 17th January 2014 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Housing Starts (Dec.13) The drop in housing starts in December was more or less in line with expectations and is explained by the surge in housing starts in the previous month and the winter storms in December. We continue... 17th January 2014 · 1 min read
US Data Response Consumer Prices (Dec.) With core CPI inflation steady at 1.7%, as upward pressure from shelter inflation offset a fall in medical care inflation, December’s CPI data won’t prevent the Fed from further trimming its asset... 16th January 2014 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Dec.) Broad money growth continues to slow but, given the rebound in long-term interest rates over the past six months, we suspect that moderation reflects a waning speculative demand for money and is not a... 15th January 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Declining home sales to constrain economic growth The third consecutive monthly decline in existing home sales in December provides more evidence that the earlier surge seen last summer was mainly a pulling forward of home purchases in response to... 15th January 2014 · 1 min read
Bank of Canada Watch Bank likely to stick with neutral policy stance The Bank of Canada is likely to stick with its neutral stance in next week's policy statement. But with its hopes of a pick-up in exports still unfulfilled and residential investment likely to re... 15th January 2014 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update Will existing home sales follow new home sales upwards? The slump in existing home sales has set the recovery in housing market activity back by 12 months. But there are good reasons to think that, like the timelier new home sales series, the decline in... 15th January 2014 · 1 min read
DM Valuations Monitor Are euro-zone government bonds favourably valued? Government bond yields have continued to fall in much of the euro-zone in response to improving economic conditions. Spreads over German Bunds have fallen to multi-year lows in many nations. But... 14th January 2014 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Fed tightening risks to grow over the medium term We continue to expect the Fed to taper its asset purchases only gradually and to keep US interest rates on hold near zero until mid-2015. Nonetheless, thereafter we expect the Fed to return rates to... 14th January 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Teranet-National Bank House Prices (Dec.) The further uptick in house price inflation to a 16-month high of 3.8% in December, from 3.4%, is consistent with the earlier pick-up in existing home sales seen over the summer. If the recent descent... 14th January 2014 · 1 min read
US Data Response Retail Sales (Dec.) Although the modest 0.2% m/m gain in December's retail sales suggests that retailers had a disappointing holiday season, the truth is that underlying spending was strong. Indeed, over the fourth... 14th January 2014 · 1 min read
US Economics Update America will further reduce its reliance on oil imports America will import fewer barrels of oil both this year and next but, while this will narrow the trade deficit a bit, it won’t provide a major boost to the economy. 14th January 2014 · 1 min read
US Economics Focus Fed will eventually have to hike rates more rapidly The markets are happy to take the Fed at its word that it won't begin to raise rates until mid-2015 and will tighten only gradually after that, but we fear that rising wage and price inflation will... 13th January 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Businesses still remain in cautious mood The Bank of Canada's latest business outlook survey shows some welcome improvement in investment and hiring intentions but, despite the Canadian dollar's recent decline and stronger sales expectations... 13th January 2014 · 1 min read
