US Economics Update Indicators point to labour market strength The latest improvements in small business hiring and labour market turnover indicate that the fall in the unemployment rate may be a more accurate gauge of labour market slack than the Fed currently... 11th February 2014 · 1 min read
US Economics Update How will the Fed's forward guidance evolve? With the unemployment rate falling to 6.6% in January, putting it very close to the Fed's threshold level of 6.5%, new Chair Janet Yellen could use her congressional testimony this week to signal how... 10th February 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Improvement in export growth to be modest The breakdown of Canada's sluggish export performance reveals that some of the weakness in the second half of last year should prove temporary. The persistent weakness in some industries such as autos... 10th February 2014 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Five challenges for the new Fed Chair In her semi-annual monetary policy testimonies to Congress this week, we expect new Fed Chair Janet Yellen to emphasise that the weak tone of some of the incoming data and the turmoil in emerging... 10th February 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Labour Force Survey (Jan.) The modest rebound in employment in January, which was not enough to reverse completely the slump last December, suggests that bad weather isn't the only factor depressing labour market conditions... 7th February 2014 · 1 min read
US Data Response Employment Report (Jan.) The disappointing 113,000 increase in non-farm payrolls in January cannot be blamed on the weather but, nonetheless, with the unemployment rate continuing to edge lower, to only 6.6% last month, we... 7th February 2014 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Rising rents to boost core inflation Low vacancy rates, falling unemployment and faster earnings growth will drive the rents inflation higher over the next year or two. In addition to signs that wage growth is poised to accelerate, this... 6th February 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response International Merchandise Trade (Dec.) The surprisingly large increase in December's trade deficit provides further evidence supporting our view that Canada's economy isn't benefitting fully from the steadily improving US economy. 6th February 2014 · 1 min read
US Data Response International Trade (Dec.) The rebound in the monthly trade deficit to $38.7bn in December, from $34.6bn, means that fourth-quarter GDP growth will likely be revised down slightly to about 2.9% annualised in the second estimate... 6th February 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Canadian dollar still too high to energise economy The recent slide in the Canadian dollar doesn't greatly improve Canada's economic prospects. The sharp decline looks overdone in our mind and we wouldn't be surprised to see a rebound, at least a... 5th February 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Chart Pack Economy more unbalanced than before Although economic growth improved over the second half of last year, averaging an estimated 3.0% annualised, there is still no sign of a much-needed rebalancing towards exports and business investment... 5th February 2014 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Mortgage Applications (Jan.14) The rise in mortgage applications for home purchase in January means that applications have repeated the pattern of falling in one month and rising in the next for six months now. The outlook for home... 5th February 2014 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Federal budget improvement may not last The decline in the Federal budget deficit over the past few years has been impressive, but the longer-term budget challenges linked principally to the aging of the population have still to be resolved... 4th February 2014 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update Is the growing market share of ARMs cause for concern? The growing take up of adjustable-rate mortgages (ARMs) does not look like a long-term threat to the stability of the housing market. Even after recent gains, the size of the ARM market is small. And... 4th February 2014 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Don't panic The sharp drop in January's ISM manufacturing index has led to some speculation that the US recovery might be coming off the rails, particularly as it followed an unexpectedly weak gain in payroll... 4th February 2014 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response CoreLogic House Prices (Dec.13) The final CoreLogic house price reading of 2013 showed that house prices rose by 11% last year. But the year-on-year rate of gains softened in the closing months of the year and is likely to weaken... 4th February 2014 · 1 min read
