US Data Response Conf. Board Consumer Confidence (Jan.) In spite of the unseasonably severe winter weather, the Conference Board measure of consumer confidence rose to 80.7 in January, from 77.5. This probably reflects the continued improvement in labour... 28th January 2014 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Case-Shiller House Prices (Nov. 13) Monthly house price inflation has been in the 0.7%-1.2% range since mid-2013, and November was no exception. But the number of locations in the Case-Shiller 20-City index which are seeing a moderation... 28th January 2014 · 1 min read
US Data Response Durable Goods (Dec 13.) The 1.0% m/m decline in durable goods orders was mainly due to a drop back in the notoriously volatile commercial aircraft component. More generally, there is some evidence that the growth rate of... 28th January 2014 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response New Home Sales (Dec.13) The large decline in new home sales in December was probably driven by last month’s unseasonably severe winter weather. Sales activity in January is likely to be weak for similar reasons. But we... 27th January 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Canadian dollar due for a temporary bounce The Canadian dollar's sharp decline over the past few weeks seems a tad overdone and we wouldn't be surprised if it enjoyed a modest rebound over the coming month or so. As the incoming economic data... 27th January 2014 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly A little help from overseas The rebound in US export growth late last year can be linked directly to strengthening demand in both China and the euro-zone. Given that growth in China is now slowing and that the dollar is... 27th January 2014 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update Why is homebuilding so low in States with rapidly rising prices? The subdued level of homebuilding in Nevada, Arizona, California and Florida is primarily a legacy of the glut of cheap, distressed homes which flooded the market during the recession and crowded out... 24th January 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Consumer Price Index (Dec.) December's increase in underlying inflation was partly due to base year effects, which the Bank of Canada knows will prove temporary. With timely indicators still pointing to ultra low inflation, the... 24th January 2014 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Existing Home Sales (Dec.13) It’s too early to conclude that the small increase in existing home sales in December marks the end of the weaker period for sales. But the rise looks consistent with a fading of the negative impact... 23rd January 2014 · 1 min read
US Economics Update 8 reasons why wage growth is poised to take off The current rates of wage and price inflation may be unusually low, but we are becoming increasingly concerned that the dwindling slack in the labour market will trigger a rise in wage inflation this... 23rd January 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Retail Sales (Nov.) The much stronger than expected rebound in retail sales volumes in November supports our view that the economy grew by at least 0.2% m/m in that month. For the fourth quarter overall, we still stand... 23rd January 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Bank of Canada slightly more dovish than before Although it stopped short of adopting an easing bias, the Bank of Canada's policy statement revealed that it is more concerned than before about persistently low inflation. With the long awaited... 22nd January 2014 · 1 min read
US Fed Watch Fed to continue with QE taper Despite the modest 74,000 increase in payroll employment in December, we expect the Fed to stick to its existing plans and reduce the monthly asset purchases by a further $10bn, to $65bn, at the... 22nd January 2014 · 1 min read
US Chart Pack Recovery becomes more resilient Our estimate that GDP grew at a decent annualised rate of 3.5% in the fourth quarter even though activity was hit by the Federal government shutdown and the unusually bad weather suggests that the... 21st January 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Survey of Manufacturing (Nov.) The stronger than expected increase in manufacturing sales volumes in November was the third consecutive solid gain and hints that the improving outlook overseas may finally be filtering through to... 21st January 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Canada no longer the safe haven it was Attracted by relatively low government debt, a stronger economic recovery and its healthier banks, foreign investors took a shine to Canadian assets in the aftermath of the financial crisis. More... 20th January 2014 · 1 min read
