Canada Rapid Response

Canada Manufacturing Sales (Jun. 2024)

It was an extremely poor month for the manufacturing sector in June, with sales falling to a two-and-a-half-year low. As new orders slumped, inventories are elevated and the S&P Global manufacturing...

16th August 2024 · 2 mins read

US Housing Market Rapid Response

Housing Starts (Jul. 2024)

The slump in both housing starts and building permits in July, to the lowest levels since the epoch of the pandemic, only partly reflects the temporary impact of Hurricane Beryl. Accordingly, even...

16th August 2024 · 2 mins read

US Commercial Property Valuation Monitor

US Commercial Property Valuation Monitor (Q3 2024)

Minimal movement in property yields and a slight edge up in the 10-year Treasury yield meant improvement in our property valuation scores stalled in the second quarter of the year. Despite the recent...

15th August 2024 · 1 min read

US Rapid Response

Industrial Production (Jul.)

The fall in manufacturing output in July was entirely driven by temporary disruptions which should reverse this month. Excluding those temporary factors, this is a strong report which, together with...

15th August 2024 · 2 mins read

US Rapid Response

Retail Sales (Jul. 2024)

There was almost nothing in the July retail sales report for the perma-bears to latch on to, with the rebound in retail sales led by a recovery in vehicle sales, but encouragingly broad-based with...

15th August 2024 · 2 mins read

Capital Daily

Has inflation optimism gone too far?

The muted reaction to today’s US CPI data reflects that most investors already expected inflation to fall to around 2% before long and remain there. But last week’s turmoil highlighted that when...

14th August 2024 · 4 mins read

Global Economics Focus

Global imbalances will continue to fuel fracturing

The renewed widening of global imbalances has become another faultline in the fracturing of the world economy, and will continue to provoke trade barriers in the coming decades. With overall...

14th August 2024 · 17 mins read

US Rapid Response

Consumer Prices (Jul.)

The 0.15% m/m increase in all-items CPI and the 0.17% increase in core CPI in July suggest that, after the temporary relapse in the first quarter, the disinflationary trend has firmly reasserted...

14th August 2024 · 2 mins read

US Commercial Property Chart Pack

US Commercial Property Chart Pack (Q3 24)

While investment has tentatively turned a corner, subdued activity and further rises in cap rates mean 2024 will still be a tough year. All-property values are down by 18% from their mid-2022 peaks...

14th August 2024 · 1 min read

Capital Daily

How vulnerable are US equities to a recession?

The further rally in stock markets today leaves both valuations and earnings looking consistent with a “soft landing” in the US. So it would not take much for equities to struggle if the economy were...

13th August 2024 · 5 mins read

US Rapid Response

Producer Prices (July)

The muted 0.1% m/m increase in final demand PPI and unchanged core PPI for July is not quite as good as it looks, but it is nevertheless consistent with the Fed’s preferred core PCE prices measure...

13th August 2024 · 1 min read

US Housing Market Update

Drop in mortgage rates won’t set the market alight

We are sceptical that the recent decline in mortgage rates will revive the housing market. Rates are still high compared to recent years, discouraging homeowners from moving, while most potential new...

12th August 2024 · 4 mins read

Canada Economics Weekly

Bank’s balancing act weighs risks on both sides

With the Summary of Deliberations this week confirming that the Bank of Canada is putting more weight on the downside risks, we feel confident that the Bank will continue to cut interest rates at each...

9th August 2024 · 5 mins read

US Economics Weekly

Temporary disruption or more serious downturn?

In purely mechanical terms, the limited data released this week did trigger a downward revision to our third-quarter GDP growth forecast to 1.7%, from 2.0%. But only because the June trade data sets...

9th August 2024 · 9 mins read

Global Markets Focus

Yield curve dis-inversion, Sahm rule & financial markets

Concerns about a US recession have led to a sharp reassessment in financial markets; some of the shifts in the wake of the latest US non-farm payrolls report look overdone (and have to some extent...

9th August 2024 · 10 mins read