Canada Rapid Response

Canada GDP (May.)

The larger-than-expected rise in GDP in May suggests that the economy performed a little better than we anticipated last quarter, although the preliminary estimate of only a small rise in June is...

31st July 2024 · 3 mins read

US Rapid Response

Employment Cost Index (Q2)

The further slowdown in wage growth evident in the second-quarter employment cost index data won’t be enough to prompt a surprise rate cut from the Fed later today, but it does strengthen the case for...

31st July 2024 · 2 mins read

US Economics Update

Wage pressures continue to ease

The JOLTS labour market data for June will do little to change the Fed’s assessment of labour market conditions ahead of its policy announcement tomorrow, with slack continuing to grow gradually and...

30th July 2024 · 2 mins read

US Housing Market Update

Strong supply weighing on house prices in the Sun Belt

Significant homebuilding in the Sun Belt region over the past three years has restored housing inventory to pre-pandemic levels, which is why house prices there have stalled. In contrast, markets in...

30th July 2024 · 4 mins read

US Housing Market Rapid Response

Case-Shiller/FHFA House Prices (May 2024)

Another moderate 0.3% m/m rise in house prices in May adds to the evidence that sellers are losing their grip on the market due to increasing supply. Do not write our forecast for a 5% gain in house...

30th July 2024 · 1 min read

Global Economics Update

Latest thoughts on r* and where rates end this cycle

In detailed analysis last year, we concluded that equilibrium nominal interest rates would settle at between 3% and 4% in advanced economies in the next ten years. We maintain that opinion and in fact...

30th July 2024 · 4 mins read

US Commercial Property Update

NCREIF Q2 data show appraisers still lagging reality

A second consecutive reduction in the size of value falls – just 1.4% q/q – in the Q2 NCREIF NPI appears to point to the price correction being all but over. However, with evidence of distress growing...

29th July 2024 · 3 mins read

Canada Economics Weekly

Bank of Canada races ahead of the pack

The Bank of Canada’s second 25bp interest rate cut, taking the policy rate to 4.50%, was accompanied by a dovish shift in the communications. Our base case is that the Bank will continue to cut rates...

26th July 2024 · 5 mins read

FX Markets Weekly Wrap

Dollar keeps calm, carry trade unwinds

At face value, the US dollar remains in something of a lull: the DXY Index is on track to end the week roughly where it ended the previous two. But that apparent stability belies the significant moves...

26th July 2024 · 6 mins read

US Economics Weekly

Upside surprises not enough to prevent September cut

The modest upside surprises to GDP and core PCE price growth revealed by the data this week were not enough to change the big picture that the economy has lost momentum this year and the...

26th July 2024 · 6 mins read

US Rapid Response

Income & Spending (June)

Core PCE prices increased by 0.18% m/m in June, largely as expected and, although May's increase was revised up slightly to 0.13%, from 0.08%, that still means inflation has been running at a target...

26th July 2024 · 1 min read

Capital Daily

We think big-tech stocks will return to the top

We think that, in the absence of a recession, “big tech” stocks will regain the lead before long, regardless of the pace of falling inflation.

25th July 2024 · 4 mins read

Asset Allocation Focus

We doubt this is the start of a far bigger rotation in US equities

We don’t think the recent rotation in US equities sets the stage for something much bigger. In our opinion, another sustained and substantial rotation won’t begin until shortly before the bubble in...

25th July 2024 · 16 mins read

Asset Allocation Update

Trump & ESG markets

We think that a second term for President Trump would probably worsen the outlook for sustainable energy equities at the margin, and also add to the pessimism around stocks in the beleaguered electric...

25th July 2024 · 5 mins read

US Commercial Property Update

Industrial sentiment worsens in Q2 RICS survey

While headline balances saw little movement, digging deeper the Q2 RICS survey shows a reversal of last quarter’s more positive outlook. Indeed, respondents seem more downbeat, with almost half now...

25th July 2024 · 6 mins read