Capital Daily How vulnerable are US equities to a recession? The further rally in stock markets today leaves both valuations and earnings looking consistent with a “soft landing” in the US. So it would not take much for equities to struggle if the economy were... 13th August 2024 · 5 mins read
US Rapid Response Producer Prices (July) The muted 0.1% m/m increase in final demand PPI and unchanged core PPI for July is not quite as good as it looks, but it is nevertheless consistent with the Fed’s preferred core PCE prices measure... 13th August 2024 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update Drop in mortgage rates won’t set the market alight We are sceptical that the recent decline in mortgage rates will revive the housing market. Rates are still high compared to recent years, discouraging homeowners from moving, while most potential new... 12th August 2024 · 4 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Bank’s balancing act weighs risks on both sides With the Summary of Deliberations this week confirming that the Bank of Canada is putting more weight on the downside risks, we feel confident that the Bank will continue to cut interest rates at each... 9th August 2024 · 5 mins read
US Economics Weekly Temporary disruption or more serious downturn? In purely mechanical terms, the limited data released this week did trigger a downward revision to our third-quarter GDP growth forecast to 1.7%, from 2.0%. But only because the June trade data sets... 9th August 2024 · 9 mins read
Global Markets Focus Yield curve dis-inversion, Sahm rule & financial markets Concerns about a US recession have led to a sharp reassessment in financial markets; some of the shifts in the wake of the latest US non-farm payrolls report look overdone (and have to some extent... 9th August 2024 · 10 mins read
Canada Rapid Response Canada Labour Force Survey (Jul. 2024) The second consecutive small fall in employment might seem to suggest that the labour market has taken a further turn for the worse, but it mainly reflected soft part-time employment among younger and... 9th August 2024 · 2 mins read
Capital Daily Taking stock of the recent market turmoil Financial markets have generally now unwound about half of the big moves from late last week and early this week, helped by jobless claims data today soothing concerns over a US economic recession. In... 8th August 2024 · 4 mins read
US Commercial Property Update Diverse occupier base to support Southern office demand After an already-tough H1 for information sector jobs, we expect the second half of the year to see further cuts, which will be bad news for tech-heavy metros in the West. But a more diverse occupier... 8th August 2024 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Update How much damage would Trump tariffs do to Europe? Several organisations have estimated that a universal 10% tariff on US imports, as proposed by Donald Trump, would reduce euro-zone GDP by at least 1%. We think the hit would be much less than 0.5%. 8th August 2024 · 4 mins read
Canada Chart Pack Canada Chart Pack (Aug. 2024) With the economy now in a position of excess supply, we expect core inflation to continue to fall back to 2% by the middle of next year. With the Bank of Canada putting more emphasis on the downside... 7th August 2024 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Rapid Response Mortgage Applications (Jul. 2024) July was a disappointing month for mortgage activity overall, with earlier high borrowing costs causing home purchase applications to slide by 5.4% m/m. All the attention, however, will be on the last... 7th August 2024 · 2 mins read
Commodities Update China, not a US slowdown, the key for industrial metals Following another leg down in industrial metals prices, this time due to growing worries about a US recession and the broader financial market carnage, we still think that prices will fall further... 7th August 2024 · 3 mins read
US Housing Market Chart Pack US Housing Market Chart Pack (Jul. 2024) A pullback in buyer demand paired with rising supply has cooled the market, causing house price inflation to ease. However, the recent sharp decline in mortgage rates will offset some of that softness... 6th August 2024 · 1 min read
US Rapid Response International Trade (Jun. 2024) There was little sign of weakening domestic demand in the international trade data for June, with imports rising. Exports rose even more sharply, causing the trade deficit to narrow, although the... 6th August 2024 · 1 min read
Canada Rapid Response Canada International Trade (Jun. 2024) The strength of oil exports in June suggests that GDP in the second quarter will come in stronger than the 2.1% annualised gain that the flash estimate implied. Coupled with stronger consumer goods... 6th August 2024 · 2 mins read
