Capital Daily Rising Treasury yields may not help the dollar Even though Treasury yields have edged up today ahead of Jerome Powell’s speech at Jackson Hole tomorrow, we think there’s still some scope for them to rise further, as we think too much easing is now... 22nd August 2024 · 5 mins read
US Housing Market Rapid Response Existing Home Sales (Jul. 2024) The small rebound in existing home sales in July seems underwhelming after last month’s large drop in mortgage rates, but the data are based on completed transactions and so it will take at least... 22nd August 2024 · 2 mins read
Global Markets Focus Can US credit spreads really stay this low? US corporate credit spreads have all but unwound the rise they saw during the recent market turbulence, and are back at very low levels by past standards. We expect them to remain compressed over the... 22nd August 2024 · 13 mins read
US Rapid Response Fed Minutes (July 30-31) The minutes of the Fed’s late July policy meeting showed broad agreement that “it would likely be appropriate to ease policy at the next meeting” in September. While the weak July Employment Report... 21st August 2024 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response Non-Farm Payrolls Preliminary Benchmark Revision (2024) The 818,000 downward revision implied by the preliminary benchmark estimate to the non-farm payroll data were roughly in line with what we had expected based on the earlier data implied by the... 21st August 2024 · 2 mins read
FX Markets Update The outlook for the US dollar as Fed cuts approach With the Fed set to finally start loosening policy and a soft landing still looking like the most probable outcome for the US economy, we think unfavourable rate differentials and continued robust... 21st August 2024 · 4 mins read
Commodities Update Recycling’s role in securing critical minerals and metals China’s announcement last week that it would curb exports of antimony, a critical mineral, was another example of global fracturing unfolding in the commodities arena. Recycling offers an obvious way... 21st August 2024 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily Reviewing the recent round trip in markets Nearly all of the pullback in the S&P 500 since the bout of rotation in the stock market began in the wake of June’s CPI report on 11th July has now been reversed. Admittedly, the same cannot be said... 20th August 2024 · 4 mins read
US Commercial Property Focus Time to go shopping for retail assets Retail real estate has faced a tough period, buffeted by the rise of e-commerce, extensive oversupply and the impacts of the pandemic on in-store shopping. But we think the sector is well down the... 20th August 2024 · 21 mins read
Canada Rapid Response Canada Consumer Prices (Jul. 2024) The softer monthly gains in the Bank of Canada’s preferred core price measures in July suggest that the previous two months reflected normal volatility rather than a stalling of the downward trend in... 20th August 2024 · 2 mins read
US Chart Pack US Chart Pack (Aug. 2024) The weaker July employment report and another set of mild inflation data mean the Fed remains on track to cut interest rates in September. With the activity data still supportive of our view that the... 19th August 2024 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Harris unveils populist economic plan Kamala Harris unveiled her economic plan today and it appears to be focused on mostly small-scale pocket-book populist issues. Our main take-away is that, like her opponent Donald Trump, she has shied... 16th August 2024 · 2 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Warning signs for business investment The data this week cast doubt on the Bank of Canada’s view that the worst is already behind us for the economy, with manufacturing sales slumping to a two-and-a-half year low in June and non... 16th August 2024 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily We think a US “soft landing” will let equities take off The relief felt in markets over the past week or so as worries about the US economy have dissipated makes sense to us. So we expect the rebound in equity markets to continue. 16th August 2024 · 4 mins read
Canada Economics Update Canada Housing Watch (Aug. 2024) Interest rate cuts have so far failed to stimulate the housing market, although the sharper drop in borrowing costs this month will lend more support. Regional divergences are growing, with Toronto... 16th August 2024 · 4 mins read
US Rapid Response Uni. of Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Aug. 2024) The small rebound in the University of Michigan consumer sentiment index in August was entirely driven by recent political developments, and still leaves it below its level for most of this year. At... 16th August 2024 · 2 mins read
