After Chair Jerome Powell made a big fuss about claiming in last November’s press conference that the Fed wouldn’t speculate about what policies the incoming Trump administration will adopt, the minutes of the December FOMC meeting admit that “a number of participants indicated that they incorporated placeholder assumptions to one degree or another into their projections. Other participants indicated that they did not incorporate such assumptions, and a few participants did not indicate whether they incorporated such assumptions”. Fed officials were at least united in judging that uncertainty about “the scope, timing, and economic effects of potential changes in policies affecting foreign trade and immigration was elevated”. Unfortunately, less than two weeks before the inauguration, that uncertainty remains just as large.
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