Capital Daily

Is a less volatile Treasury market here to stay?

The Treasury market has been quite subdued since the US election, including today despite a slightly disconcerting CPI report. We don’t expect it to become a whole lot more volatile in 2025 either...

11th December 2024 · 5 mins read

US Fed Watch

Fed to continue with gradual policy normalisation

We expect the Fed to cut its policy rate by an additional 25bp at next week’s FOMC meeting, to between 4.25% and 4.50%, and to continue projecting that the fed funds rate will eventually end up close...

11th December 2024 · 9 mins read

Canada Rapid Response

Bank of Canada Policy Announcement (Dec. 2024)

Although the Bank of Canada cut interest rates by another 50bp today, the accompanying communications were more hawkish than might have been expected, with the Bank no longer indicating that further...

11th December 2024 · 2 mins read

US Rapid Response

Consumer Prices (Nov)

The 0.31% m/m increase in core CPI in November, which left the annual core inflation rate unchanged at 3.3% for a fourth month in a row and pushed the three-month annualised rate up to an eight-month...

11th December 2024 · 2 mins read

US Housing Market Update

Rental growth to pick-up as apartment supply drops off

The peak in new apartment supply has passed, with completions set to drop back sharply over the next few years. If demand continues to hold up well as we expect, this should put downward pressure on...

10th December 2024 · 3 mins read

Asset Allocation Update

The AI rally has broadened

Investors’ enthusiasm for AI appears to have supported an increasingly broad set of equities of late, even if much of the associated rise in market capitalisation remains concentrated in a few of the...

10th December 2024 · 5 mins read

Canada Economics Update

How far will mortgage interest cost inflation fall?

While mortgage interest cost (MIC) inflation has historically turned negative during, or after, loosening cycles, we expect it to remain positive this time and rebound from 2026. This is because, in...

10th December 2024 · 3 mins read

UK Commercial Property Update

What’s keeping real estate investors awake at night?

A vast share of our clients highlighted geopolitics and/or Trump as their biggest blind spots going into 2025 when polled at our recent London roundtables. Meanwhile, a large majority thought that...

9th December 2024 · 3 mins read

Capital Daily

Rally in long-dated Treasuries may have run its course

We think the rally in 10-year Treasuries over recent weeks reflects both the incoming US economic data and changing perceptions towards Trump’s policy agenda. But we don’t expect this rally to...

6th December 2024 · 5 mins read

Canada Economics Weekly

Is this a ‘vibecovery’?

Recent Bank of Canada communications have been keenly attuned to the downside risks to inflation and economic activity, concerns which seemed justified after last week’s disappointing GDP report...

6th December 2024 · 4 mins read

US Economics Weekly

Inflation the last piece of the puzzle for the Fed

The data releases this week provided some support for our view that the Fed will cut interest rates by 25bp at its next meeting, rather than pause, although next week's price data will be the deciding...

6th December 2024 · 4 mins read

US Rapid Response

Uni. Of Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Dec. 2024)

While the headline University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index remains below its average over the first half of the year, the jump in December suggests that household spending growth is likely to...

6th December 2024 · 2 mins read

Canada Rapid Response

Canada Labour Force Survey (Nov.)

We disagree with the market reaction to November's Labour Force Survey, implying that the jump in the unemployment rate makes a 50bp cut much more likely. A slowdown in immigration will soon act to...

6th December 2024 · 3 mins read

US Rapid Response

Employment Report (Nov. 2024)

The solid 227,000 gain in non-farm payrolls in November was driven partly by the reversal of the disruptions that weighed on hiring in October, but still implies that underlying employment growth was...

6th December 2024 · 2 mins read

US Commercial Property Update

No holiday cheer for CRE debt

Our expectation of rising evidence of distressed assets in 2024 has come to bear, but we think more is still to come over the next couple of years. Some of that will stem from matured loans requiring...

5th December 2024 · 6 mins read