US Commercial Property Outlook Atlanta, Dallas top the rankings; NYC, SF lose out Consistent with our national office story, we expect a few years of insipid rent growth and returns for most US office markets. Expensive coastal metros will continue to see weak demand as high rates... 23rd December 2022 · 2 mins read
US Data Response Personal Income & Spending, Durable Goods (Nov.) Real consumption is on course for solid growth of 3.5% annualised in the fourth quarter, but the income and spending data show that it stalled in November. The soft durable goods orders data for last... 23rd December 2022 · 3 mins read
Canada Data Response GDP by Industry (Oct.) The modest gain in GDP in October and upward revision to activity in previous months suggest the economy was coping well with higher interest rates at the start of the fourth quarter, but the... 23rd December 2022 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response US Personal Income & Spending, Durable Goods (Nov.) 23rd December 2022 · 2 mins read
US Chart Pack Falling inflation will be the big story of 2023 The November CPI report marked the second successive undershoot in inflation and there is mounting evidence that it will continue to fall sharply in 2023. (See Chart 1.) Core goods prices are coming... 21st December 2022 · 9 mins read
Capital Daily We do not expect tech stocks to prolong the S&P 500’s pain We doubt the current bear market in US equities will be as deep or as long as that after the dot com bubble burst, partly because “tech-heavy” sectors did not push up the S&P 500’s valuation relative... 21st December 2022 · 5 mins read
Canada Chart Pack Core inflation pressures still too strong for comfort The renewed rise in the three-month annualised rates of CPI-trim and CPI-median inflation in November call into question the idea that the Bank of Canada has already finished its tightening cycle... 21st December 2022 · 8 mins read
US Housing Market Data Response Existing Home Sales (Nov.) Existing home sales experienced their largest drop in nine months in November, as October’s spike in mortgage rates fed through to sales. But mortgage rates have since dropped back and are likely to... 21st December 2022 · 2 mins read
Canada Data Response Consumer Prices (Nov.) Overall inflation pressures were stronger than anticipated in November and the 3-month annualised measures of CPI-trim and CPI-median both increased. This supports our view that the Bank of Canada... 21st December 2022 · 2 mins read
US Housing Market Data Response Housing Starts (Nov.) Single-family housing starts continued to fall in November as weak new home demand weighed on homebuilder confidence. We expect this to push starts down to a trough of 650,000 annualised in the coming... 20th December 2022 · 2 mins read
Canada Data Response Retail Sales (Oct.) Retail sales volumes are struggling for momentum and, with the services spending indicators also showing some weakness, household consumption may be heading for a second consecutive quarterly... 20th December 2022 · 3 mins read
Event The World in 2023 - What to Expect in Advanced and Emerging Economies 1673337600 Chief Global Economist Jennifer McKeown and colleagues from across our macro services held a special briefing on what to expect from major DMs and EMs in 2023.
US Commercial Property Outlook Total returns to turn negative in 2023, led by apartments The sharp rise in interest rates this year has prompted a price correction, which is now coming through in valuation-based indices. Combined with the mild recession we are forecasting for 2023, this... 19th December 2022 · 3 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Household net worth squeezed further One third of the rise in household net worth during the pandemic has now been reversed and the further fall in house prices in November points to another deterioration this quarter. Lower net worth... 16th December 2022 · 7 mins read
