US Economics Weekly Activity data take a turn for the worse The weakness of retail sales and manufacturing output over the final two months of 2022 has reignited market fears of a hard landing this week, with the Fed’s latest Beige Book acknowledging that... 20th January 2023 · 8 mins read
Capital Daily Shift in the US stock-bond correlation might be here to stay We expect the negative correlation between the returns from Treasuries and US equities that followed yesterday’s poor batch of economic data to continue through to the spring, as inflation continues... 19th January 2023 · 6 mins read
US Economics Update Fed returns to its 1990s reaction function The Fed’s hawkish transformation has been so marked that, if its forecasts are to be believed, over the next couple of years it would effectively be adopting the same reaction function last followed... 19th January 2023 · 5 mins read
US Housing Market Data Response Housing Starts (Dec.) Single-family housing starts surprised on the upside in December. But it is too soon to call the bottom of the market. Indeed, another substantial fall in permits means we think starts are set to... 19th January 2023 · 2 mins read
US Chart Pack Weakness spreads to the hard activity data First came the inversion of the yield curve. Next the index of leading indicators began to fall. Then the survey-based activity indicators plunged well below the 50 mark. Finally, this week we learned... 19th January 2023 · 10 mins read
Bank of Canada Watch A smaller 25 bp hike with a hawkish message The Bank of Canada is set to raise interest rates by a smaller 25 bp next week. While many will be looking for clues that this will be the end of the tightening cycle, the key risk to market pricing... 18th January 2023 · 7 mins read
Capital Daily Dollar and yen may benefit from weak global economy The latest signs that the US economy is losing momentum seem to have driven a risk-off mood in markets today, with equities struggling and the safe-haven US dollar and Japanese yen reversing earlier... 18th January 2023 · 5 mins read
US Data Response Industrial Production (Dec.) The manufacturing sector appears to be in recession and, even if China’s emergence from its Covid restrictions provide some boost later this year, the deterioration in the survey evidence suggests the... 18th January 2023 · 2 mins read
US Data Response Retail Sales (Dec.) The 1.1% m/m fall in retail sales in December, which followed a downwardly-revised 1.0% fall in November, adds to the evidence from the surveys that the economy was losing momentum towards the end of... 18th January 2023 · 2 mins read
Canada Economics Update Canada Housing Watch (Jan.) The large fall in new listings in December failed to prevent another sizeable drop in house prices, but the improvement in the sales-to-new listing ratio offers some hope that the downward pressure on... 17th January 2023 · 4 mins read
US Economics Update Risk of debt ceiling crisis is rising Raising the federal debt ceiling later this year will require bipartisan compromise, most likely involving measures to reduce the budget deficit modestly. But a deal probably won’t be reached until... 17th January 2023 · 4 mins read
Canada Data Response Consumer Prices (Dec.) Although the annual rates of core inflation remain elevated, the three-month annualised rates of CPI-trim and CPI-median dropped back to 2.5% in December. Elevated inflation expectations mean that the... 17th January 2023 · 3 mins read
Long Run Update Pouring cold water on the “petroyuan” The process of “global fracturing” that we outlined in our annual Spotlight series last year will remain the dominant macro theme for the next decade. But speculation that it will result in the rise... 17th January 2023 · 3 mins read
