Energy Update High US fuel prices could boost crude exports US petroleum product prices have risen again, mainly due to refinery-side supply constraints. We think this will translate into fewer product exports, but potentially even more crude oil exports. 8th November 2022 · 2 mins read
Capital Daily The worst may not be over for US big-tech Although US “big-tech” stocks have had a torrid time so far this year, including for much of the past week on net, we think there is still ample scope for the “supersector” in which they reside to... 8th November 2022 · 5 mins read
UK Commercial Property Update Global recession seals real estate downturn In line with changes in our global economic view, we have made significant downgrades to our commercial real estate forecasts for the next couple of years. As a result, we now expect a much bigger... 8th November 2022 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily Mixed labour market signals may mean yields stay high for a while While we still think a sustained fall in Treasury yields is on the cards, the latest US employment data suggest it may still be a while off yet. 4th November 2022 · 7 mins read
US Data Response Employment Report (Oct.) The October employment report had something for everyone, with continued strong gains on the payroll survey while the household measure showed a sharp fall in employment and a rise in unemployment... 4th November 2022 · 2 mins read
Canada Data Response Labour Force Survey (Oct.) The 108,300 surge in employment in October makes a mockery of claims that the economy is on the cusp of recession and, with wage growth accelerating sharply despite favourable base effects, that means... 4th November 2022 · 3 mins read
Event US Drop-In: Will October CPI justify more hawkish noises from the Fed? 1668092400 Our US Economics team held a briefing shortly after the October data release, in which they answered client questions and addressed key issues around what was happening at the Fed and Congress, inc
Canada Economics Update Fiscal restraint keeps markets on side The $6bn in new federal spending measures for this year, as outlined in the Fall Economic Update, amount to just 0.2% of GDP and will have little impact on the economic outlook or monetary policy. By... 3rd November 2022 · 3 mins read
Precious Metals Update Gold and silver prices to rise next year Gold and silver prices fell following Chair Powell’s hawkish comments yesterday. But if we are right in thinking US rates won’t rise by as much as markets expect, gold and silver prices should... 3rd November 2022 · 2 mins read
Global Markets Update What the latest central bank signals mean for markets The differing tones of the Fed, ECB and BoE at their recent meetings have seen yields rise in the US more than elsewhere and reignited the rally in the US dollar. That pattern could last a few more... 3rd November 2022 · 5 mins read
Canada Data Response International Trade (Sep.) & Building Permits (Sep.) The improvement in crop yields boosted export volumes in September, but the strength of exports was overshadowed by the also-reported record slump in building permits, which suggests that higher... 3rd November 2022 · 3 mins read
US Data Response Int’l Trade (Sep.) and Productivity & Labour Costs (Q3) A drop back in exports and small rebound in imports means the trade deficit bounced back to $73.3bn in September, from a downwardly revised $65.7bn. With that weakness in exports likely to last for... 3rd November 2022 · 2 mins read
Global Markets Update The changing drivers of this year’s sell-off in the S&P 500 Downward revisions to expectations for earnings have taken a toll in the second half this year so far on the S&P 500, which had been under pressure in the first half from a discount-rate-driven drop... 2nd November 2022 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily What a change in tack by the Fed could mean for markets We think an eventual Fed “pivot” will push down long-term Treasury yields, although it may not help the stock market much nor prevent a renewed US dollar rally. 2nd November 2022 · 6 mins read
US Commercial Property Data Response US Metro Employment (Sep.) Employment continues to trend higher across the 30 metros, but nearly half remain short of pre-pandemic peaks, including all six major metros. Indeed, with job growth slowing, we don't expect... 2nd November 2022 · 2 mins read
