US Data Response International Trade (Nov.) The sharp narrowing of the trade deficit to $61.5bn in November, from $77.8bn, came as a big fall in exports was offset by an even sharper drop in imports. Net trade still looks to have been a small... 5th January 2023 · 2 mins read
Canada Data Response International Trade (Nov.) Lower commodity prices have now wiped out the goods trade surplus, while the falls in export and import volumes present downside risks to the preliminary estimate that GDP edged up in November. Drop... 5th January 2023 · 3 mins read
US Commercial Property Update How did our key calls for 2022 fare? While our forecast that the economy would slow in 2022 on the back of high inflation and Fed policy tightening was right, like every other forecaster we were surprised by its extent. This threw off... 4th January 2023 · 3 mins read
US Economics Update JOLTS show labour market conditions still tight The latest JOLTS data suggest that labour market conditions remain quite tight and a lot more adjustment is needed to ensure that the drop back in price inflation to 2% will be sustained. 4th January 2023 · 2 mins read
US Data Response ISM Manufacturing Index (Dec.) The decline in the ISM manufacturing index to a two-and-a-half year low of 48.4 in December, from 49.0, is another sign that the economy lost more momentum at the tail-end of last year. Nearly all the... 4th January 2023 · 2 mins read
US Housing Market Data Response Mortgage Applications (Dec.) A second consecutive increase in home purchase applications in December suggests that declining mortgage rates have allowed buyer demand to bottom out. Indeed, as we expect mortgage rates to continue... 4th January 2023 · 2 mins read
Capital Daily Dollar rebound may set the tone for early 2023 After struggling in the last quarter of 2022, the US dollar has started the new year with a bang. We think the greenback’s rebound has further to run over the coming months. 3rd January 2023 · 6 mins read
US Employment Report Preview Employment growth slowing more markedly We estimate that employment growth slowed more sharply in December, with non-farm payrolls rising by 160,000. The unemployment rate probably edged up to an 11-month high of 3.8%. 3rd January 2023 · 3 mins read
US Commercial Property Outlook Southern lead to narrow We now expect a small fall in rents next year in a handful of metros as affordability constraints and falling employment take their toll on demand. At the same time, a wave of completions in some of... 29th December 2022 · 12 mins read
US Housing Market Data Response New Home Sales (Nov.) New home sales increased for the second month in a row in November. That is at odds with other measures of market activity, which have fallen sharply in response to the jump in mortgage rates. We... 23rd December 2022 · 2 mins read
US Economics Weekly 2023: recession, disinflation… and debt ceiling crisis? This week brought further signs of slowing activity growth and falling inflation, trends we expect to intensify next year. Meanwhile, Congress has averted a government shutdown, but there appears to... 23rd December 2022 · 10 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Strong services inflation keeps pressure on the Bank The November CPI data were a mixed bag, with deflationary pressure on goods starting to feed through but strong price rises for several key services. The 3-month annualised measures of core inflation... 23rd December 2022 · 6 mins read
