Capital Daily Soft landing or disinflationary bust? While investors seem to have judged that today’s batch of data supports the case for a soft landing, our view remains that the US economy faces a tough couple of quarters. With this in mind, we expect... 6th January 2023 · 7 mins read
FX Markets Weekly Wrap Dollar rebound stalls on softening US economy Financial markets have begun 2023 on a cautious note, see-sawing on mixed data. Although it has dropped back today, the US dollar has started the new year on the front foot, rising against most other... 6th January 2023 · 9 mins read
US Commercial Property Update Six key calls for US commercial real estate in 2023 Our key calls for 2023 highlight major shifts in the outlook for real estate. We expect all-property total returns to be negative for the first time since 2009. At a sector level, we expect retail to... 6th January 2023 · 4 mins read
Asset Allocation Update How 2022 altered the long-run outlook for US equities Although valuation premia in certain parts of the US stock market shrank significantly last year, we think there is still some room for this to continue in the coming decade and weigh on their... 6th January 2023 · 5 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Resilient labour market may force Bank to do more The resilience of the labour market is a risk to our view that the Bank of Canada will pause its tightening cycle after a final 25 bp hike this month, even as the slump in natural gas prices raises... 6th January 2023 · 4 mins read
US Housing Market Update Key US Housing Market Calls for 2023 While we expect mortgage rates will fall to 5.75% by end-2023, affordability will remain stretched. Alongside a weakening economy and falling house prices that will weigh on housing market activity... 6th January 2023 · 3 mins read
US Economics Weekly Activity weakening, despite labour market resilience The data this week suggested that the weak global backdrop is being compounded by a deterioration in domestic activity, although the labour market still appears to be in good health. Drop-Ins – The... 6th January 2023 · 6 mins read
US Data Response Employment Report (Dec.) The solid 223,000 gain in non-farm payrolls and drop-back in unemployment to a 50-year low in December will, at face value, do little to ease the Fed’s concerns about resilient core services inflation... 6th January 2023 · 2 mins read
Canada Data Response Labour Force Survey (Dec.) The surge in employment in December and renewed fall in the unemployment rate suggest that the Bank of Canada will raise interest rates again later this month, although the fall in wage growth means... 6th January 2023 · 3 mins read
Event US Drop-In: Will the December CPI report shift the disinflation/policy debate? 1673535600 After November’s positive surprise, will December’s CPI report provide more evidence that US inflationary pressures are easing – and what would that mean for the Fed’s policy calculus?
Capital Daily Treasury yields may fall as the Fed changes its tune Despite the FOMC suggesting otherwise, we expect the Fed to be cutting rates by the end of 2023, as the nascent trend of disinflation continues. This informs our forecast that the 10-year Treasury... 5th January 2023 · 6 mins read
Canada Economics Update Shelter inflation set to fall sharply this year Strong rental growth and higher mortgage costs will keep shelter inflation elevated for the next few months, but we expect it to fall sharply over the rest of 2023 as lower house prices feed through... 5th January 2023 · 3 mins read
US Economics Update Recession Watch (Dec.) Our composite models continue to suggest that a recession this year is a near-certainty, with the implied odds of the economy being in recession in six months’ time and in one year’s time both above... 5th January 2023 · 5 mins read
