Capital Daily Strong payrolls may not stop lower UST yields and equity prices Despite the stronger than expected US non-farm payroll print, we still think both the 10-year Treasury yield and S&P 500 will fall over the rest of this year. 2nd June 2023 · 7 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Why wait? The upside surprise to first-quarter GDP growth means there is a rising probability that the Bank of Canada will raise interest rates again. While the commonly held view seems to be that the Bank will... 2nd June 2023 · 6 mins read
US Economics Weekly Debt ceiling deal sealed; Fed to skip June T he debt ceiling standoff ended not with a bang but a whimper – as the bill easily passed the House and Senate with comfortable majorities. Although the prospect of a debt ceiling deal briefly... 2nd June 2023 · 6 mins read
Asset Allocation Update Mega-cap outperformance: lessons from history In a recent Global Markets Update, we analysed the remarkably narrow rally in the S&P 500 so far in 2023. We concluded that recent history supported our forecast that the rally will run out of steam... 2nd June 2023 · 4 mins read
US Data Response Employment Report (May) The bigger-than-expected 339,000 increase in non-farm payroll employment in May will dominate the headlines, but the employment report was not all positive – with a big drop in the household survey... 2nd June 2023 · 2 mins read
US Commercial Property Update ULI Consensus Spring 2023: Consensus forecasts under-estimate the pain to come It comes as no surprise to see a sharp downgrade to consensus forecasts given the combined impact of the regional banking crisis and growing office sector distress. But despite those downgrades, our... 2nd June 2023 · 2 mins read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report Oil prices surged on the back of this week’s report, which managed to successfully tear investors’ attention away from the upcoming OPEC+ meeting this weekend. In isolation, there was little to... 1st June 2023 · 2 mins read
US Data Response ISM Manufacturing Index (May) The slight decline in the ISM manufacturing index to 46.9 in May, from 47.1, reinforces our view that the jump in manufacturing output in April won’t be sustained. But the bigger news was the renewed... 1st June 2023 · 3 mins read
US Housing Market Outlook Prices edge lower as recession weighs on demand Poor affordability and a weakening economy will weigh on housing market activity this year, causing home sales to remain low over the next few quarters. While house prices increased in February and... 1st June 2023 · 15 mins read
US Economics Update Will debt ceiling deal weigh on the economy? The debt ceiling deal constitutes a modest fiscal tightening, principally because it will guarantee the resumption of student loan repayments this summer, but we aren’t worried that the post-deal... 1st June 2023 · 5 mins read
Bank of Canada Watch 25bp hike coming with chance of another in July As GDP growth and CPI inflation have both surprised to the upside of the Bank of Canada’s forecasts, we now judge that it will raise interest rates next week rather than wait until July. 31st May 2023 · 7 mins read
US Economics Update JOLTS data show cooling labour market The April JOLTS data suggest that the gradual easing in labour market conditions continues, which is putting downward pressure on wage growth. 31st May 2023 · 2 mins read
Capital Daily More cause for concern in macro than market corporate earnings While a relatively upbeat Q1 earnings season helped to assuage concerns that the US economy is heading for a recession, last week’s macroeconomic profit data painted a less rosy picture. 31st May 2023 · 6 mins read
