UK Economics Chart Pack Entering a harder phase of the recovery Our Capital Economics BICS Indicator suggests that the rapid economic recovery has continued with some chunky gains in GDP in both July and August. (See Chart 1.) If so, then the economy may now be... 8th September 2020 · 9 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Rishi "horror show" to be postponed Despite the soaring level of public debt we doubt that the Chancellor, Rishi Sunak, will turn to tax rises anytime soon. If anything, we think it is likely that the Chancellor will announce further... 4th September 2020 · 7 mins read
UK Economics Update Back to school boost for the economy The reopening of schools this week could give a boost to GDP of around 5% as output in the education sector returns to normal and parents who have had to provide childcare get back to work. 3rd September 2020 · 3 mins read
UK Data Response EC Economic Sentiment (Aug.) The small fall in the UK Economic Sentiment Indicator (ESI) in August suggests that the economic recovery might already be starting to fizzle out. What’s more, rising unemployment is likely to further... 28th August 2020 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Update Surge in retail sales overstating the wider rebound The recovery in total consumer spending is almost certainly lagging well behind the surge in retail sales. And although the early signs of a recovery have been positive, a coming wave of unemployment... 27th August 2020 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Update Recent lull in business insolvencies the calm before the storm The recent lull in business insolvencies will almost certainly be followed by a wave of businesses going bust as government support is withdrawn. This will contribute to a surge in unemployment over... 25th August 2020 · 3 mins read
UK Data Response Retail Sales (Jul.) Retail sales rose above their pre-pandemic levels in July as non-essential shops were allowed to open for the whole month. But the sector has benefited disproportionately from online spending and a... 21st August 2020 · 2 mins read
UK Markets Outlook Time to shine UK assets may outperform overseas assets over the next year or two even though the UK’s economic recovery from the coronavirus crisis may take longer. We think that a larger expansion in the Bank of... 13th August 2020 · 13 mins read
UK Economics Update Big discounts boost eating out, but consumers still cautious The success of the Eat Out to Help Out (EOHO) scheme suggests that fears about the virus are not preventing activity. But as meals out only seem to be popular due to a heavy discount, consumers are... 11th August 2020 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Negative rates on the table, but BoE not reaching for them The MPC played down the prospects of negative interest rates anytime soon at its meeting this week and instead suggested that it would use the other tools in its arsenal such as forward guidance and... 7th August 2020 · 8 mins read
UK Economics Chart Pack UK bringing up the rear The large share of consumer-facing services in the UK economy, combined with a deeper and longer lockdown than most other developed economies meant that the UK was always going to be hit harder than... 5th August 2020 · 9 mins read
UK Markets Chart Pack Loose monetary policy to anchor gilt yields for years Despite the Bank of England having slowed the pace of its gilt purchases to below that of gilt issuance (see Chart 1), our forecasts that it will expand the size of its quantitative easing programme... 22nd July 2020 · 8 mins read
UK Data Response Public Finances (Jun.) The smaller rise in public sector borrowing in June compared to May suggests that government support is starting to wind down as the economy reopens. However, government borrowing is still... 21st July 2020 · 3 mins read
UK Economic Outlook Lagging behind in the recovery race The combination of a large share of the UK’s GDP being generated by the sectors that are hampered the most by social distancing and the drag from the uncertainty caused by Brexit means the UK economy... 20th July 2020 · 26 mins read
UK Data Response Monthly GDP & International Trade (May) The 1.8% m/m rise in GDP in May is a disappointing first step on the road to recovery and suggests that hopes of a rapid rebound from the lockdown are wide of the mark. Indeed, the path to full... 14th July 2020 · 4 mins read
UK Economics Update UK lagging behind in the recovery race Some indicators suggest the UK is lagging behind other countries in the race to recover from the coronavirus, and it faces some additional hurdles which could slow it down even more. That’s why we... 7th July 2020 · 3 mins read
