UK Economics Weekly Data distortions make the MPC’s job more difficult A flurry of weak data this week has sent money markets into a tailspin. But we suspect that the MPC will just about look past the Brexit and election related distortions and will probably hold off... 17th January 2020 · 7 mins read
UK Data Response Retail Sales (Dec.) December’s outright fall in retail sales, despite a boost from the lateness of Black Friday, does not bode well for GDP growth in December and could nudge the MPC yet closer still to cutting rates at... 17th January 2020 · 2 mins read
UK Markets Chart Pack To cut, or not to cut, that is the question The Monetary Policy Committee’s decision on whether to cut rates in January rests on a knife edge and could go either way. The MPC must weigh up the weakness of the economy and low inflation in Q4... 16th January 2020 · 8 mins read
UK Economics Weekly First evidence of a “Boris bounce” There is some early evidence that a “Boris bounce” after the election victory might be in progress, but the size and duration of any upswing will depend on how well the next stage of the Brexit... 10th January 2020 · 9 mins read
UK Data Response IHS Markit/CIPS Services & All-Sector PMI (Dec.) Clearly Q4 was very weak, but the decisive result of the General Election appears to have given the services PMI a bit of a boost. That jump in confidence may start to come through in other data in Q1... 6th January 2020 · 2 mins read
UK Data Response Retail Sales (Nov.) At face value, November’s further drop in retail sales volumes is pretty concerning. But the picture is clouded by the late timing of Black Friday this year, which probably means November’s figures... 19th December 2019 · 2 mins read
UK Markets Chart Pack Equities to make up lost ground The post-election jump in UK equities could just be the start of a sustained rally. Concerns Brexit and higher taxes under a Labour government mean that UK equity indices have underperformed over the... 17th December 2019 · 8 mins read
UK Data Response IHS Markit/CIPS Flash PMIs (Dec.) & OBR Fiscal Data The weak flash PMIs for the UK are another piece of evidence that suggests growth flat-lined in Q4. And if there isn’t a pick-up in the surveys in the next few months, then the MPC may respond by... 16th December 2019 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Political fog lifts, but horizon still unclear While the election result has changed sentiment in the markets and Westminster, as far as the economy is concerned the most crucial decisions about the UK’s future trading relationship with Europe and... 13th December 2019 · 11 mins read
UK Economics Update What to watch on election night Our election preview contains detailed analysis of the potential impact of the election on the economy and markets. Here we focus on what to watch on Thursday night to get a sense of the result and... 11th December 2019 · 4 mins read
UK Economics Chart Pack Election to mark a turning point for the economy The anticipation of next week’s election delivering a substantial majority for the Conservative Party and leading to a Brexit deal has already triggered a turning point in the financial markets, with... 5th December 2019 · 8 mins read
UK Economics Focus The election and its implications for the economy and markets The election on 12th December is likely to mark the beginning of a new phase for the UK economy, determining not only the type of Brexit (or if Brexit happens at all) but also the size and shape of... 26th November 2019 · 19 mins read
UK Economics Update Would a Labour victory be a loss for the pound? A victory for Labour in the general election on 12th December would probably cause the pound to slide from $1.29/£ to around $1.20/£. But the prospect of a softer Brexit, or even no Brexit at all... 22nd November 2019 · 3 mins read
UK Data Response IHS Markit/CIPS Flash PMIs (Nov.) The first set of regular flash PMIs for the UK will only stoke fears that the economy is heading for a further slowdown at the end of the year. Indeed, even though we think that the PMIs are probably... 22nd November 2019 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Update Not much for retailers to cheer this Christmas November’s “Black Friday” boost to retail sales volumes will actually show up in December’s retail sales figures this year. More importantly, consumers may not be in the mood to spend freely over the... 20th November 2019 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Economy running out of momentum With employment falling and GDP contracting in September, the government will have been glad to close the door on Q3. But looking out of the window onto Q4, the view isn’t much better. 15th November 2019 · 5 mins read
