UK Data Response Money & Credit (Sep.) September’s money and credit data showed that the mini-boom in the housing market continued, but a fall in consumer credit suggests that consumer spending was already faltering before the latest round... 29th October 2020 · 2 mins read
UK Data Response Retail Sales (Sep.) The further rise in retail sales in September means that retail sales are now 5.5% above their pre-virus level. But total consumer spending will probably start to stutter over the next few months as... 23rd October 2020 · 2 mins read
UK Markets Chart Pack Second lockdown fears weigh on equities The growing risk of a second national UK lockdown has spooked equity markets over the last week. We already expect the recovery to stall in Q4 and additional COVID-19 restrictions could easily throw... 22nd October 2020 · 8 mins read
UK Economics Update Circuit breaker lockdown would reset the recovery A “circuit-breaker” lockdown where most pubs and restaurants are closed across the country would throw the economic recovery into reverse and mean that, depending on the severity and length of the... 15th October 2020 · 3 mins read
UK Economic Outlook Recovery put on ice The new COVID-19 restrictions will put the economic recovery on ice for the next few months and will prevent the economy from climbing back to its pre-crisis level until the end of 2022. The... 13th October 2020 · 27 mins read
UK Economic Outlook Recovery put on ice The new COVID-19 restrictions will put the economic recovery on ice for the next few months and will prevent the economy from climbing back to its pre-crisis level until the end of 2022. The... 13th October 2020 · 27 mins read
UK Economics Update Consumers misery is largely justified Consumers appear to be much more miserable than the economic fundamentals would imply. But the prospect of a second wave of unemployment and the risk of future lockdowns are not captured well by the... 5th October 2020 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Focus Brexit – deal or no deal is not the big issue As the differences between a Brexit deal and a no deal are not as big as they once were, the economic costs of a no deal have diminished. The bigger risk is that relations between the UK and the EU... 1st October 2020 · 44 mins read
UK Economics Money & Credit (Aug.) While the resurgence in the housing market continued in August, consumer credit barely rose. And the darkening clouds on the economic horizon may tempt some households to start to rein in spending in... 29th September 2020 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Weekly New restrictions 1 - 0 new government support The net effect of the new restrictions designed to help quash the coronavirus announced this week and the new support measures announced by the Chancellor yesterday will be to soften GDP growth this... 25th September 2020 · 6 mins read
UK Markets Chart Pack COVID and Brexit risks rising The concerns about the consequences for the economy from a second wave of COVID-19 and a no deal Brexit, which have reduced the FTSE 100 almost back to April’s level and weakened the pound from $1.35... 23rd September 2020 · 8 mins read
UK Data Response IHS Markit/CIPS Flash PMIs (Sep.) The drop in the composite IHS Markit/CIPS Flash PMI suggests that the recovery has already started to flatten out in September. And reinstating restrictions on business opening hours and encouraging... 23rd September 2020 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Investment still in lockdown, negative rates back in vogue UK consumers have embraced their renewed ability to spend over the last few months but business investment is still on lockdown as uncertainty about the economic recovery, Brexit and future lockdowns... 18th September 2020 · 6 mins read
UK Economics Consumer Prices (Aug.) The sharp drop in CPI inflation in August probably represents the low point for inflation. But a sustained rise to 2.0% seems unlikely within the next few years. 16th September 2020 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Housing mini-boom will temporarily boost consumer spending The recent rebound in housing transactions and jump in house prices will boost consumption over the coming months, but the boost will only be temporary. Once the stamp duty holiday expires at the end... 14th September 2020 · 3 mins read
UK Data Response Monthly GDP & International Trade (Jul.) The strong 6.6% m/m rise in GDP in July suggests that the record-breaking negative growth rate of GDP in Q2 will be followed by a record-breaking positive growth rate in Q3. However, July was probably... 11th September 2020 · 3 mins read
